马里不确定性的经济影响

The Economic Impact ofUncertainty in Mali Luc Tucker SIP/2025/130 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed onJuly 16, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No25/256. 2025OCT IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department The Economic Impact of Uncertainty in MaliPrepared by Luc Tucker Authorized for distribution by Wenjie ChenOctober2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on July 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/256. ABSTRACT:Economic uncertainty in Mali has increased over a number of years. Specifically, economicagents have less confidence about predicting the future and see an increased risk of negative outcomes.Heightened policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on GDP growth in Mali by reducing the ability of businessesand households to plan ahead with confidence, which typically results in lower investment and consumption.This paper highlights some ways the authorities in Mali could reduce policy uncertainty, which would create theconditions for stronger GDP growth. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Tucker, Luc. The Economic Impact of Uncertainty in Mali. IMF Selected IssuesPaper (SIP/2025/130). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. The Economic Impact ofUncertainty in Mali Prepared by Luc Tucker MALI SELECTED ISSUES Preparedby Luc Tucker THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MALI ______________________________2 A. Evidence of Heightened Uncertainty in Mali _________________________________________2B. The Impact of Uncertainty on Businesses and Households in Mali ___________________5C. Conclusion ___________________________________________________________________________8 FIGURES 1. Mentions of Uncertainty in Mali ______________________________________________________22. External Financing to Mali ____________________________________________________________33. Interest Premia over Equivalent Euro-Area Rates in Maliand the Rest of the WAEMU ____________________________________________________________54. Correlation Between Uncertainty and GDP Growth in Mali ___________________________75. Distribution of GDP Growth Forecasts According to a Growth-at-Risk Model ________7 ANNEXES I. Measuring Uncertainty Using Economic Reports and Global News Coverage_______10II. Methodology for the Growth-at-Risk Model for Mali ______________________________12 References____________________________________________________________________________13 THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTY IN MALI1 This paper shows how multiple challenges facing Mali over a number of years have increasedeconomic uncertainty. Specifically, economic agents have less confidence about predicting thefuture and see an increased risk of negative outcomes. Part of that uncertainty is the unavoidableresult of exogenous shocks and global economic developments, but some is also due to policydecisions made by the authorities. Heightened policy uncertainty is expected to weigh on GDPgrowth in Mali by reducing the ability of businesses and households to plan ahead withconfidence, which typically results in lower investment and consumption. This paper highlightssome ways the authorities in Mali could reduce policy uncertainty, which would create theconditions for stronger GDP growth. A.Evidence of Heightened Uncertainty in Mali Uncertainty Has Been Elevated in Mali since 2012... 1.One leading empirical measure ofuncertainty in Mali has been elevated forsome time, reflecting the multiple challengesover that period.Researchers have constructedan indicator of economic uncertainty bycounting the number of references to‘uncertainty’ and related terms in economicreports (Ahir and others, 2018). Between 2012and 2022 this index was over 50 percent higheron average than the previous decade (Figure 1).This heightened uncertainty reflectslongstanding security challenges in particular,including multiple coups d’état. Mali ranksfourth globally in a list of countries mostaffected by terrorism and has the lowest scoreof all countries for perceptions of safety(Institute for Economics and Peace, 2023 and2024). Extreme weather and natural disasters have become more prevalent over time. This is a particular concern given that agriculture is themain source of employment and income for 60 percent of the active population. 2.The available survey evidence suggests that reducing uncertainty has long been a toppriority for businesses in Mali.Researchers have typically used surveys to measure businesses’perceived uncertainty, but this is more difficult in low-income countries (LICs) such as Mali (Avalosand others, 2022). Surveys of firms in Mali are usually conducted on an ad hoc b