25Q2净利润环比增长104%，实现煤气化环节的低成本运营

中国心连心化肥China XLX Fertiliser(1866.HK) 25Q2净利润环比增长104%，实现煤气化环节的低成本运营25Q2Net profit+104%MoM & Achieving low-cost operation inthecoal gasification 最新动态 ➢25Q2净利润环比增长104%。25H1，集团未经审计综合收入约126.66亿元，同比增加5%。25H1集团的未经审核综合纯利及归母净利分别下降19%及13%，扣非净利润同比下降9%。2025年年初产品价格下行拖累25H1整体价格表现，但随着下游需求逐步释放，25Q2产品价格环比明显回升，其中尿素、三聚氰胺的回升幅度尤为显著。集团通过强化市场营销及新增产能有序投放，推动各产品销量实现不同程度增长，进而带动收入稳步提升。25Q2，集团各产品售价均呈显著向好态势，尿素及三聚氰胺售价环比分别增长10%和11%；得益于销售网络的持续密植，复合肥及三聚氰胺的销量环比分别增长29%和20%。在售价与销量的双重向好推动下，25Q2毛利环比提升44%，净利润环比增长104%。 ➢尿素价格下行拖累尿素盈利水平。尿素25H1的销售收入约32.25亿元，同比减少16%，该减少因素主要由于平均售价同比下降19%所致。受供需错配、出口管控及成本支撑减弱等因素影响，25年年初尿素价格承压下行，拖累25H1整体平均售价。而随着出口政策的明朗化及下游需求的持续释放，尿素价格逐步企稳回升，季度环比上涨10%。同时，集团把握出口政策松动的契机，积极开发澳大利亚、荷兰等海外市场，推动出口量同比增加4.7万吨，支撑集团尿素销量同比增长4%。与此同时，受价格下行影响，尿素的毛利率由24H1的31%下降10个百分点至25H1的21%。对此，集团积极应对：一方面，持续优化工艺，前端煤气化装置借助两煤掺烧技术，有效节降生产成本1%；另一方面，抓住煤价下行的窗口期，与煤炭供货商争取更大的降价空间，推动煤价同比下降20%，确保平均生产成本同比下降7%。有效抵减了价格波动带来的不利影响。 ➢25H1复合肥原料价格上涨侵蚀盈利。25H1复合肥的销售收入约35.66亿元，同比增加5%，主要得益于销量同比增长8%。随着广西基地顺利投产，新增产能已辐射广东、广西及海南市场的需求。作为经济作物主产区，华南地区的甘蔗、柑橘等主要经济作物已形成规模化种植，其旺盛的种植需求不仅带动销量稳步增长，更有力推动高效肥销量同比提升11%，实现了区域市场与基地布局的高效协同。复合肥的毛利率由24H1的18%下降2个百分点至25H1的16%。自2025年以来，受供需错配影响，复合肥主要原料钾肥与磷肥价格持续上行，同比涨幅分别达到24%和6%，带动复合肥生产成本同比上升1%。 动向解读 ➢高效重复利用基地资源，实现煤气化环节的低成本运营。集团作为“中国高效用肥倡导者”，专注于缓释、控失及水肥一体化等技术的研发与应用，大力推广节水节肥、增产增效的种植模式，适应现代农业用肥需求，进一步夯实市场竞争力。与此同时，集团聚焦化肥主业，坚持“以肥为基，高质发展”的战略方向，立足合成氨生产领域，依托规模化、基地化运作模式，通过高效重复利用基地资源，实现煤气化环节的低成本运营。集团在保持生产规模与运营能力全国领先的同时，以稳健有序的节奏推进战略布局落地。其中，江西基地二期项目及新乡基地化工新材料项目，将分别在25Q3及26Q1投产，广西、准东两大新增基地均按计划稳步推进，预计至2027年，集团各在建产能全面释放，现金流规模将远超资本开支。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.72亿元、16.57亿元、20.66亿元。结合可比公司估值及AH股估值差异，给予公司2026年10倍PE，按照港元兑0.92汇率计算，对应目标价为14.02港币，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示 原材料价格波动、下游需求不及预期、在建项目进度不及预期。 What’s New ➢Net profit in25Q2 increased by 104%MoM.In25Q2, the unaudited comprehensive income of the group is approximately 12.666 billionyuan(+5%YoY). The unaudited comprehensive net profit and net profit attributable to shareholders of 25H1 Group decreased by 19% and13% respectively, with aYoYdecrease of 9% in non-GAAP net profit. At the beginning of 2025, the decline in product prices dragged downthe overall price performance of 25H1, but with the gradual release of downstream demand, product prices in 25Q2 rebounded significantlyMoM, with urea and melamine showing particularly significant rebound. The group has strengthened marketing and orderlydeployment ofnew production capacity to promote varying degrees of growth in sales of various products, thereby steadily increasing revenue.In25Q2,the prices of various productsshoweda significant upward trend, with urea and melamine prices increasing by 10% and 11% respectivelyYoY; Thanks to the continuous cultivation of the sales network, the sales of compound fertilizers and melamine increased by 29%and 20%respectivelyMoM. Driven by the dual improvement of selling price and sales volume, the gross profit of 25Q2 increased by 44%MoM, andthe net profit increased by 104%MoM. ➢The decline in urea prices has dragged down the profitability of urea.The sales revenue of urea 25H1 was approximately 3.225 billionyuan(YoY-16%). The reduction factor is mainly due to a 19%YoYdecrease in average selling price. Affected by factors such as supply-demand mismatch, export control, and weakened cost support, urea prices were under pressure to decline at the beginning of the year,dragging down the overall average selling price of 25H1. With the clarification of export policies and the continuous release of downstreamdemand, urea prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded, rising by 10% quarter on quarter. At the same time, the group seized theopportunity of loose export policies and actively developed overseas markets such as Australia and the Netherlands, promotingaYoYincrease of 47000 tons in export volume and supporting a 4%YoYgrowth in urea sales for the group. At the same time, due to the impactof price decline, the gross profit margin of urea decreased by 10 percentage points from 31% in 24H1 to 21% in 25H1. In response to this,the group actively responded: on the one hand, it continuously optimized the process, and the front-end coal gasification device utilized thetwo coal co firing technology, effectively reducing production costs by 1%; On the other hand, seizing the window period of coal price decline,we will strive for greater price reduction space with coal suppliers, promote a 20%YoYdecrease in coal prices, and ensure a 7%YoYdecrease in average production costs. Effectively offset the adverse effects of price fluctuations. ➢The price increase of 25H1 compound fertilizer raw materials is eroding profits.The sales revenue of 25H1 compound fertilizer wasapproximately RMB 3.566 billion, an increase of 5%YoY, mainly due to an 8% increase in sales volume. With the smooth operation of theGuangxi base, the newly added production capacity has radiated the demand of the Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan markets. As themain production area of economic crops, sugarcane, citrus and other major economic crops in South China have formed lar