黄金ETF持有量增加 2025-09-30 宏观策略(黄金) 黄金ETF持有量增加 金价持续上涨迭创新高,配置资金继续流入,美国政府又将面临关门风险,两党尚未就支出达成一致,市场存在一定的避险情绪。特朗普上一任期内因为出现过关门停摆的情况。 宏观策略(国债期货) 国家发改委:新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元 短期债市震荡寻底,短线交易建议谨慎,但持续调整概率不高,视市场情绪逢低布局中线多单。 农产品(豆粕) 巴西新作播种率3.2% 美豆收割率达到19%,关注今晚季度库存报告。巴西9月前四周共出口大豆651万吨,新作播种已经完成3.2%。国内豆粕提货良好,上周油厂豆粕库存下降。 黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板) 扫描二维码,微信关注“东证繁微”小程序 水利部:预计“十四五”水利建设完成投资超5.4万亿元 即将进入国庆假期期间,由于铁水产量较高,累库压力依然存在。假期后,旺季需求即将进入验证期,若卷板去库偏慢,仍有可能提前交易后续铁水减量逻辑。节前轻仓操作。 有色金属(锌) 有色金属行业稳增长工作方案发布 由于伦锌风险依然很高,可尝试关注节前虚值call介入机会,节前做好仓位管理。 目录 1、金融要闻及点评.................................................................................................................................................................41.1、宏观策略(黄金)............................................................................................................................................................41.2、宏观策略(国债期货)....................................................................................................................................................42、商品要闻及点评.................................................................................................................................................................52.1、农产品(豆油/菜油/棕榈油).........................................................................................................................................52.2、农产品(豆粕)................................................................................................................................................................62.3、黑色金属(焦煤/焦炭)...................................................................................................................................................62.4、黑色金属(螺纹钢/热轧卷板)......................................................................................................................................72.5、农产品(玉米淀粉)........................................................................................................................................................72.6、农产品(玉米)................................................................................................................................................................72.7、农产品(红枣)................................................................................................................................................................82.8、黑色金属(动力煤)........................................................................................................................................................82.9、黑色金属(铁矿石)........................................................................................................................................................92.10、有色金属(碳酸锂)......................................................................................................................................................92.11、有色金属(铅)............................................................................................................................................................102.12、有色金属(锌)............................................................................................................................................................112.13、能源化工(烧碱)........................................................................................................................................................112.14、能源化工(纸浆)........................................................................................................................................................122.15、能源化工(PVC)..........................................................................................................................................................122.16、能源化工(尿素)........................................................................................................................................................122.17、能源化工(苯乙烯)....................................................................................................................................................132.18、能源化工(PX)............................................................................................................................................................142.19、能源化工(PTA)..........................................................................................................................................................142.20、能源化工(瓶片)........................................................................................................................................................142.21、能源化工(纯碱)........................................................................................................................................................152.22、能源化工(浮法玻璃)................................................................................................................................................15 2.23、航运指数(集装箱运价)...............................................................................................................................