美元是否正在触底？

Is the dollar bottoming out? A potential US growth rebound bodes well for dollar stabilityand for risk-sensitive currencies that tend to outperform.Risks to Fed independence could derail dollar stability, butgoldoffersa good value hedge. Themistoklis Fiotakis+44 (0) 20 7773 2002themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK LeƞerisFarmakis+44 (0) 20 3555 6549leƞeris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, US Mitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Marek Raczko+44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UK Shinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, Japan FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Overview A rebound in US activity bodes well for dollar stability and favours risk sentiment and high-betacurrencies. The key risk is the SCOTUS ruling on Cook, which we account for via a near-termovershoot in our new EUR/$ forecasts. Were it not for this, an outright bullish USD path wouldbe warranted. FX & EM Macro Strategy FX & EM Views for the Year Ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Please find our updated FX views and forecasts across G10 and EM currencies. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 67 .Completed: 22-Sep-25, 22:07 GMTReleased: 23-Sep-25, 04:00 GMTRestricted - External FX & EM Macro StrategyForecast Tables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61G10 and EM forecasts. FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Overview Is the dollar bottoming out? A rebound in US activity bodes well for dollar stability andfavours risk sentiment and high-beta currencies. The key riskis the SCOTUS ruling on Cook, which we account for via anear-term overshoot in our new EUR/$ forecasts. Were it notfor this, an outright bullish USD path would be warranted. Themistoklis Fiotakis+44 (0) 20 7773 2002themos.fiotakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK LeƞerisFarmakis+44 (0) 20 3555 6549leƞeris.farmakis@barclays.comBarclays, UK More fundamental than you think:The dollar's resilience since June is deemed temporary bymarket consensus. We make several arguments and analytical points that there is more todollar resilience than meets the eye.Post-tariffvaluations, overshooting pessimism in FXmarkets and the lack of credible investment alternatives create a more solid dollar backdropthan typically appreciated. Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, US The worst is behind us:Fadingeffectsfromtariffs,easing financial conditions and a positivefiscal impulse may allow for better growth outcomes in 2026 than in 2025. Historically,accelerating US growth (especially coupled with Fed cuts) brought about dollar stability. In sucha setup, high-beta currencies to risk sentiment tend to outperform the dollar. Mitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore One clear and present danger:All the above holds true in the base case that theadministration does not manage to undertake a radicalrestaffingof the FOMC. If the SCOTUSruling on Governor Cook signals that such ashiƞis likely, the dollar may selloffquiteaggressively. Marek Raczko+44 (0) 20 3134 0089marek.raczko@barclays.comBarclays, UK Shinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Hedge this risk with gold: We argue that gold remains a surprisingly good value hedge againstsuch inflationary tails, evenaƞerthe recent large rally. The Swiss franc shares many of gold'sfeatures but is more expensive fundamentally, while the yen likely requires cyclical equityweakness to perform. Lemon Zhang+65 6308 5137lemon.zhang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore CNY stability as a vol killer: The lack of potential for the CNY and other Asian FX to appreciatesignificantly implies limited downside for the USD. Asia’s “fear of floating” has made it hard forfree floating G10 FX to break out of established ranges. While the de-facto USD peg benefitedChina at a time of USD weakness, it also acted to dampen FX volatility. Erick Martinez+1 212 526 9380erick.martinez@barclays.comBCI, US EM: High beta and high carry parts of the EM FX universe will continue to benefit in this setup ofbetter growth, stable dollar and low volatility. In the absence of term premia shocks, EM curvesshould decouple from the US curve as there is less scope for EM easing. Sheryl Dong+44 (0) 20 7773 0180sheryl.dong@barclays.comBarclays, UK What to make of all this:Our forecasts allow