数字化与就业：发达经济体和发展中经济体的经验教训（英）

LESSONS FROM DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES Madhabendra Sinha, Gemma Estrada, Donghyun Park, and Shu Tian ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Digitalization and Employment:Lessons from Developed and Developing Economies Madhabendra Sinha (madhabendras@gmail.com)is an assistant professor at Visva-Bharati University.Gemma Estrada is a former staff member, DonghyunPark (dpark@adb.org) is an economic advisor, andShu Tian (stian@adb.org) is a principal economistat the Economic Research and Development ImpactDepartment, Asian Development Bank. Madhabendra Sinha, Gemma Estrada,Donghyun Park, and Shu Tian No. 802 | September 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250373-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250373-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. ABSTRACT This study examines the comparative effects of digitalization on employment in developed anddeveloping economies. Based on available data from the International Labour Organization(2024), the International Telecommunication Union (2024), and the World Bank (2024), 3 differentpanels have been formed for the period 2000–2023 for the empirical exercises, which use paneldata econometric methods. These panels comprise 53 developed economies, 74 developingeconomies, and 37 developing economies in Asia and the Pacific. The empirical results imply thatthe employment effect of digitalization across developed and developing economies is diverse. Itis observed that the impact of digitalization on employment in developed economies is nonlinear(inverted-U), indicating that the initial effect is positive but that, in the long run, it tends to benegative. However, the impact of digitalization on employment is found to be positive and linearingroups of developing economies and developing Asian economies.More interestingly,compared to the group of global developing economies selected, the extent of the employmentimpact of digitalization is lesser in developing Asia and the Pacific. In this regard, the relationshipbetween digitalization and job quality may play a pivotal role: past studies evidence that thisrelationship is crucial in determining whether digitalization leads to job creation or job loss. Briefpolicy lessons are also discussed based on the study findings. Keywords:digitalization, employment, developed economies, developing economies,developing Asia, panel data econometrics JEL codes:O30, E24, N75, C23 I.INTRODUCTION A.Background Digitalization is a pivotal force that is transforming the employment scenario in developed anddeveloping economies in the advanced global economy (Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2011, 2