了解巴基斯坦公立和私立学校COVID-19后的学习恢复（英）

Tahir Andrabi and Tomoya Murakawa ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Understanding Post-COVID-19 Learning Recoveryin Public and Private Schools in Pakistan Tahir Andrabi (trsa4747@pomona.edu) is theStedman-Sumner professor of economics atPomona College, California. Tomoya Murakawa(tmaa2020@mymail.pomona.edu) is a research fellowat Harvard Kennedy School. Tahir Andrabi and Tomoya Murakawa No. 803 | September 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250369-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250369-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. ABSTRACT Thecoronavirus disease(COVID-19)pandemic affected education through schoolclosures and disruptive shocks to household income, health, and economic activity.Using data from a survey carried out in 2024 in 108 rural villages as a continuation of theLearning and Educational Achievement in Pakistan Schools (LEAPS) panel data projectinPunjab,Pakistan,we measure these shocks and their effects on the learningoutcomes of primary school students.Although the duration of school closures had aminimal direct impact, COVID-19-induced income shocks significantly reduced studentlearning, by 0.06 SD (standard deviation), disproportionately affecting public schoolstudents(0.08 SD)compared to a minimal effect on private school students.Consequently, the pandemic widened the pre-existing private–public learning inequalityin more impacted areas.The study also finds that mitigation action by schools duringclosures in general did not explain the variation in learning outcomes. The impact of theCOVID-19-inducedshock was fairly modest in magnitude compared to thealready-existing learning variation owing to other school and student characteristics thatnormally predict educational outcomes, such as gender, school type, and maternaleducation.We also document long-term trends using the village panel aspect of theLEAPS project.Despite the significant disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic,student performance in all subgroups by gender and school type showed improvement inthe period 2011–2024 at least as much as in the previous period of 2004–2011.Thefindings collectively suggest there has been a steady improvement in education levels inrural Pakistani villages and that COVID-19 may have had only a small effect, or thenegative impact disappeared by 2 years after school reopening. Keywords:COVID-19,educational disruption,mitigation action,public and privateschool inequality, Pakistan JEL codes:I21, I25, O53 1INTRODUCTION 1.1Background and Context This study creates a benchmark estimate of the consequences of the coronavirusdisease (COVID-19)