高等教育扩张与企业组织（英）

11216 Higher Education Expansionand Firm Organization Xavier CireraMarcio CruzAntonio Martins-Neto Finance, Competitiveness and Investment Global DepartmentSeptember 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11216 Abstract This paper investigates the impact of higher educationexpansion on firm performance in developing countries.It focuses on the significant expansion of higher educa-tion in Brazil between 2000 and 2012, which substantiallyincreased higher education enrollment and graduation rates,thereby reducing the costs of hiring college-educated work-ers. Building on the theory of knowledge-based hierarchiesand using a difference-in-differences approach and match-ing techniques, the paper finds that the surge in skilled labor supply led to a rise in the proportion of college-ed-ucated workers within firms in the treated microregions.This increase was accompanied by an increased prob-abilityof firms adding knowledge hierarchies, followed by a risein productivity and an increased likelihood of export. Thefindings suggest that policies affecting the cost and accessi-bility of hiring professionals and managers can significantlyinfluence firms’ organizational structures, with implicationsfor firm performance and productivity. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. HigherEducationExpansionandFirmOrganization XavierCirera1,MarcioCruz2,andAntonioMartins-Neto1 1TheWorldBank2IFC JEL Codes: D22, I23, J24, J44, L23Keywords:Higher Education, Firm Organization, Productivity 1Introduction The quality of management and firm organization is a critical determinant of firm produc-tivity growth (Ichniowski and Shaw, 2009; Bloom and Van Reenen, 2007).High-skilledprofessionals can implement management practices that are more conducive to increasingproductivity, for example, by introducing better incentives to workers that increase theirperformance (Lazear, 2000) or better organizational structures to accumulate and enhancethe use of knowledge (Garicano, 2000).However, a key challenge for developing countriesis finding these professionals who can grow firms and compete in international markets. Inaddition to lower quality management practices (Bloom et al., 2012), firms in developingcountries face a scarcity of high-skilled professionals and higher hiring costs (Hjort et al.,2022). The relatively low supply of higher education graduates is an important factor explainingthe scarcity of qualified professionals in developing countries. For example, Dahlstrand et al.(2025) find that proximity to schools offering business degrees increases the likelihood ofhaving better quality CEOs, that are associated with higher productivity. This paper uses aquasi-natural experiment in Brazil to explore the link between higher education expansion,hiring of skilled workers and firm organization, and their implications on firm performance.Specifically, we explore the impact on firms of a significant expansion in higher education(HE) universities in Brazil from 2000 to 2012.This expansion substantially increased HEenrollment and graduation rates, which raised the supply of skilled labor. We posit that thisexpansion translated into an increase in hiring skilled workers — particularly professionals,and managers in smaller firms — which improved their organization and performance. To understand the relationship between the supply of skilled workers and firm perfor-mance, our starting point is the theory of knowledge-based hierarchies developed by Garicano(2000), Garicano and Rossi-Hansberg (2006) and Caliendo and Rossi-Hansberg (2012). Ac-cording to this framework, firms not only utilize capital and labor but also rely on workers’knowledge to solve problems of varying complexity. As firms expand production or integratemore complex processes, such as adopting advanced technologies or entering internationalmarkets, they encounter increasingly complex challenges that require more knowledge. However, acquiring knowledge is costly, and even the most knowledgeable workers arelimited by time and can only address a few complex problems. To overcome this constraintand enhance problem-solving capabilities, firms may implement changes in their organiza-tional structure. In particular, firms may establish a knowledge-based hierarchy structure ina pyramid shape, in which firms organize workers into layers of different si