震撼但不可阻挡：2025年地震后缅甸受过高等教育的青年的急性压力源和希望与抱负的形成（英）

11342 Shaken, but Not Deterred Acute Stressors and the Formation of Hopeand Aspirations among Tertiary-Educated Youthin Myanmar in the Aftermath of the 2025 EarthquakePublic Disclosure Authorized Jeffrey R. BloemYashodhan GhorpadeMuhammad Saad Imtiaz Social Policy Global DepartmentMarch 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11342 Abstract Although hope and aspirations are increasingly consid-ered to be both intrinsically and instrumentally valuable,quantitative evidence on the formation of these factors islimited. Using data from a sample of educated youth inMyanmar, this paper documents the relationship betweenvarious sources of chronic (ongoing and long-term) andacute (brief and intense) stressors with measures of hopeand aspirations. The findings indicate that hope and aspi-rations are tightly linked with chronic stressors (low relativeincome and labor market mismatch). However, exposure toan acute stressor (a large and destructive earthquake) doesnot meaningfully influence hope and aspirations. Theseresults are relevant to both development and emergency relief efforts that consider incorporating mental health intopolicy design and implementation. The results suggest thatpolicies that aim to address sources of chronic stress (suchas poverty and employment outcomes) may have underap-preciated psychological benefits that complement standardeconomic benefits measured in the form of higher wagesand employment outcomes. This further emphasizes theneed to continue efforts toward development objectivesthat can mitigate the effects of chronic stressors, even whenmore acute shocks occur. Additionally, policy responses toemergency and disaster situations may be most effective ifthey focus on immediate material needs so that an acutestressor does not become a chronic stressor. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Shaken, but Not Deterred: Acute Stressors and the Formation of Hope and Aspirationsamong Tertiary-Educated Youth in Myanmar in the Aftermath of the 2025 Earthquake Jeffrey R. Bloem, Yashodhan Ghorpade, and Muhammad Saad Imtiaz JEL Codes: I31,D91 Key Words: Hope, Aspirations, Shocks, Earthquake, Myanmar Note: We would like to thank Alia Aghajanian and Pascal Jaupart for helpful comments on an earlier version ofthe paper. Jeffrey R. Bloem is a Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), YashodhanGhorpade is a Senior Economist at the World Bank, and Muhammad Saad Imtiaz is a consultant at the WorldBank and a faculty member at the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS). The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do notnecessarily represent the views of the World Bank and its affiliated organizations, those of the ExecutiveDirectors of the World Bank or the governments they represent, or the CGIAR andits affiliated organizations.Corresponding author email:yghorpade@worldbank.org. 1.Introduction Hope and aspirations, along with other measures of mental wellbeing, are now consideredimportant outcomes when evaluating both development and emergency relief policies andprograms. Theseholdintrinsicvalue as indicators ofmental health, and measures of theseforward-looking attitudes are increasingly used as outcomes in policy and programevaluations (see, e.g., Lybbert and Wydick 2017; Garcia, Lensink, and Voors 2020; Bloemand Gandhe 2021). There is alsoa growing body of both theory (see, e.g., Genicot and Ray2017; Lybbert and Wydick 2018) and empirical evidence (see, e.g., La Ferrara, 2019; Frutteroand Calvo-Gonzalez 2025) showing that hope and aspirations holdinstrumentalvalue asthey contribute to the realization of other important outcomes—such as educationalattainmentandlabor force outcomes.Despite all this, there isrelatively little quantitativeevidence on the factors that determine the formation of hope and aspirations. Moreover, aswe discuss below, any existing evidence tends to focus on one factor at a time and does notdocument the relative importance of multiple possible factors that could, in part, determinethe formation of hope and aspirations. In this paper we use unique data collected among educated youth in Myanmar to comparet