国际清算银行季度报告2025年9月国际银行和金融市场动态

BIS Quarterly Review International banking and financialmarket developments September 2025 BIS Quarterly Review International banking and financialmarket developments September 2025 Editorial Committee: Generalqueries concerning this commentary should be addressed to Andreas Schrimpf(tel +41 61 280 8942, e-mail:andreas.schrimpf@bis.org), queries concerning specific parts to the authors,whose details appear at the head of each section. This publication is available on the BIS website (https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2509.htm). BIS Quarterly Review September 2025 International banking and financial market developments Markets shrug off trade conflicts ................................................................................................. 1Risk assets plough ahead....................................................................................................... 2Box A: Understanding the swift market recovery afterthe April 2025 tariff shock..................................................................................................... 5Box B: The safe haven properties of US Treasuriesand portfolio flows of global investors............................................................................. 9Bond markets await further policy easing......................................................................10EMEs joined the risk-on rally ...............................................................................................13 Articles A multi-sector assessment of the macroeconomic effects of tariffs........................... 15Matthias Burgert, Benoît Mojon, Daniel Rees, Matthias Rottner and Hongyan ZhaoTariff announcements and the structure of global trade ....................................... 17The impact of tariffs on output and inflation – an initial assessment ............... 19Box A: MS-Trade: a quantitative trade modelfor a global perspective on the impact of tariffs....................................................... 20Interpreting the transmission mechanism: supply,demand and production networks ................................................................................. 25Box B: BIS-MS: a framework for analysing sectoralspillovers and assessing monetary policy .................................................................... 26Box C: Bridging MS-Trade and BIS-MS throughthe multi-sector structure .................................................................................................. 27Policy implications ................................................................................................................. 28Conclusion................................................................................................................................. 30References................................................................................................................................. 31A global survey of household perceptions and expectations ....................................... 33Francesco D’Acunto, Fiorella De Fiore, Damiano Sandri and Michael WeberStructure of the survey questionnaire............................................................................ 35Household inflation expectations .................................................................................... 37Perceptions of the post-pandemic inflation surge ................................................... 40Households’ knowledge of central banks..................................................................... 42 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................... 45References.................................................................................................................................. 47 Monetary policy operational frameworks – a new taxonomy........................................ 49Paolo Cavallino, Mathias Drehmann, Richard Finlay and Julie RemacheOperational frameworks – a primer................................................................................. 51A new operational framework taxonomy ...................................................................... 53Box A: International liquidity standards and banks’ demandfor central bank reserves ..................................................................................................... 56Box B: Central bank balance sheet mechanics and thequantity of reserves ............................................................................................................... 58Applying the taxonomy to central bank practices ..................................................... 59Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 63References.................................................................................................................................. 64 Internat