2025年度经济报告：在不确定和分裂中维持稳定-国际清算银行

Key takeaways 7BIS Annual Economic Report 2025 8BIS Annual Economic Report 2025changes in the financial system described in Chapter II of this report. In this context,there is a need for a consistent regulatory framework for banks and other financialintermediaries that pose similar risks to financial stability. Finally, for monetary policy,the experience of recent years has been a forceful reminder of the primacy of pricestability as a cornerstone for sustainable growth. In an era of heightened uncertainty,preserving this anchor is more important than ever.To succeed in these challenges, policy needs to be conducted with credibleframeworksthat deliver reasonable outcomes in a broad range of scenarios.Policymakers must set clear targets against which their policies can be assessed andselect appropriate tools to achieve them. They need to clearly explain their actionsand decisions to the public and be held accountable when things do not go to plan.Periodic reviews aimed at strengthening these frameworks can help to ensure theyremainfit for purpose in the face of a changing environment.This steadfastcommitment to the pursuit of their goals will foster society’s trust in policymakersand institutions, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of measures taken.From soft landing to turbulence and uncertaintyThe outlook for the global economy, which until early 2025 seemed on track for a softlanding, has been overshadowed by heightened uncertainty. In the second half of2024, inflation was projected to converge to central bank targets alongside ongoingmoderate economic growth. However, the global environment is now characterisedby disruptions to trade and rising geopolitical tensions punctuated by periods ofheightened financial market volatility.The global economy was growing at a moderate rate ahead of the disruptionsthat have defined recent months. Global GDP growth was just over 3% in 2024,broadly in line with mid-2024 expectations (Graph1).GDP growth by country and region1Year on year, in per centA. GDP growth forecastsB. Decomposition of global GDPgrowth by regions1See endnotes for details.2For 2024, actual GDP growth or Consensus Economics estimates.Sources: Consensus Economics; LSEG Datastream; national data; BIS.32106420AmericaEMEsLatinAsianAEsOtherBROtherINCNOtherGBJPEAUSGlobal(lhs)GlobalAEs (lhs)EMEs (rhs)-----------------------------------------GDP growth:Jun 2024May 20252For 2024:For 2025:Actual2Asia & OceaniaAmericasEuropeAfricaGlobal GDP growth contribution: Graph 13210Forecast 9BIS Annual Economic Report 2025The stable aggregate outcome for global growth in 2024 masked significantdifferences across economies. The United States stood out as the strong performeramong advanced economies (AEs), with economic growth in 2024 once againsurprising to the upside. By contrast, growth in Europe and Japan was weak.A key factor behind these differences was the resilience of the US consumer(Graph 2.A). Household consumption was above its pre-pandemic trend in the UnitedStates with a lower saving rate, while households in most other AEs were much morecautious, with saving rates typically well above their pre-pandemic level (Graph 2.B).Economic trends in emerging market economies (EMEs) were also varied. Inmany East Asian economies, solid growth in export volumes helped offset weakdomestic demand (Graph 2.C). In China, strong expansion in manufacturing outputand exports enabled the country to achieve the authorities’ GDP growth target of5% for 2024, despite the ongoing adjustment in the property sector. Meanwhile,growth in India slowed, following an exceptionally strong performance after thepandemic. In Latin America, economic activity was generally subdued, except inBrazil where strong domestic demand was supported by a tight labour market andfiscal transfers.Labour market conditions had largely normalised by the second half of 2024.While unemployment rates had increased relative to the very low levels reached in theimmediate aftermath of the pandemic, they generally remained below pre-pandemicnorms. As labour markets rebalanced, nominal wage growth generally eased butremained firmer than before the pandemic. One exception was Japan, where thegrowth rate of nominal wages continued to rise, reaching its highest level in decades.Inflation continued to ease, reaching or approaching central bank targets inmost economies (Graph 3). However, progress towards target slowed in some LatinAmerican economies, such as Brazil, Chile and Colombia, due to domestic drivers,includingprivate demand,adjustments in regulated prices and exchange ratedepreciations. By contrast, inflation was generally at or below target in East Asia,highlighted by the persistent very low rates of inflation in China.ConfidentialMost consumers remained cautious as exports underpinned growth in Asia1Graph 2A. Private consumption per capitaB. Current household saving rate vspre-pandemic averageC. Export volumesQ4 2019 = 100% ptsQ4 2019 = 1002Median values