RU、NR、BR月报：供应弱而消费尚可，防“反内卷”预期退坡

第一部分前言概要...........................................................................................4第二部分总览与说明.......................................................................................5第三部分宏观供应...........................................................................................6 一、全球数据.................................................................................................6 ➢气候................................................................................................6➢商品估值.........................................................................................11 二、全球数据................................................................................................14 绝对价格.........................................................................................14 三、海外数据................................................................................................15 ➢ANRPC胶盟天然橡胶产业...............................................................15➢泰国天然橡胶产业............................................................................17➢越南天然橡胶产业............................................................................25➢美国合成橡胶产能利用率...................................................................27 四、国内数据................................................................................................28 ➢中国橡胶进口及产量.........................................................................28➢中国天然橡胶产量............................................................................34➢中国合成橡胶产量............................................................................35➢国内胶水产品...................................................................................36➢台湾橡塑业......................................................................................38 五、全球数据................................................................................................40 六、海外数据................................................................................................41 ➢国际贸易.........................................................................................41➢日本橡胶库存...................................................................................42➢马来西亚天然橡胶零售库存...............................................................44➢东南亚标胶加工利润.........................................................................45➢海外橡塑机械...................................................................................46 第1页共120页 七、国内数据................................................................................................48 ➢国内库存.........................................................................................48➢RU仓单..........................................................................................51➢期货成交.........................................................................................53➢全乳老胶基差...................................................................................56 八、现货价差季节性.....................................................................................56 ➢绝对价格.........................................................................................56➢泰国混合基差...................................................................................57➢越南3L基差....................................................................................60➢国产标二基差...................................................................................61➢泰国烟片基差...................................................................................64➢泰标（美元）基差............................................................................65➢非标（美元）基差............................................................................66 九、期货价差季节性.....................................................................................67 ➢RU月差..........................................................................................67➢NR月差..........................................................................................68➢TF月差..........................................................................................70➢RU-NR..........................................................................................72➢RU-TF..........................................................................................72 十、全球数据................................................................................................74 ➢全球汽车销量...................................................................................74➢中韩汽车产量...................................................................................75➢日韩乘用车保有量............................................................................76十一、海外数据.....................................................................................77➢美国橡塑业......................................................................................77➢汽车消费-美国................................................................................78➢欧洲汽车行业指数.....................................................