RU、NR、BR月报：宏观面预期退潮，兑现基本面逻辑

第一部分前言概要...........................................................................................4第二部分总览与说明.......................................................................................5第三部分宏观供应...........................................................................................6 一、全球数据.................................................................................................7 ➢气候................................................................................................7➢商品估值.........................................................................................13 二、全球数据................................................................................................17 绝对价格.........................................................................................17 三、海外数据................................................................................................18 ➢ANRPC胶盟天然橡胶产业...............................................................18➢泰国天然橡胶产业............................................................................21➢越南天然橡胶产业............................................................................30➢美国合成橡胶产能利用率...................................................................32 四、国内数据................................................................................................33 ➢中国橡胶进口量...............................................................................33➢中国天然橡胶产量............................................................................39➢中国合成橡胶产量............................................................................40➢国内胶水产品...................................................................................41➢台湾橡塑业......................................................................................43 六、海外数据................................................................................................46 ➢波罗的海干散货指数.........................................................................46➢日本橡胶库存...................................................................................47➢马来西亚天然橡胶零售库存...............................................................50➢东南亚标胶加工利润.........................................................................51➢海外橡塑机械...................................................................................52 第1页共173页 七、国内数据................................................................................................54 ➢国内库存.........................................................................................54➢RU仓单..........................................................................................57➢期货成交.........................................................................................59➢全乳老胶基差...................................................................................62 八、现货价差季节性.....................................................................................63 ➢绝对价格.........................................................................................63➢泰国混合基差...................................................................................64➢越南3L基差....................................................................................70➢国产标二基差...................................................................................73➢泰国烟片基差...................................................................................77➢泰标（美元）基差............................................................................80➢非标（美元）基差............................................................................80 九、期货价差季节性.....................................................................................82 ➢RU月差..........................................................................................82➢NR月差..........................................................................................84➢TF月差..........................................................................................88➢RU-NR..........................................................................................92➢RU-TF..........................................................................................93 ➢全球汽车销量...................................................................................96十一、海外数据.....................................................................................97➢CPI-美国轮胎.................................................................................97➢美国橡塑业......................................................................................98➢汽车消费-美国................................................................................99➢汽车消费-日本..............................................................................102➢汽车消费-韩国..............................................................................103➢欧洲汽车行业指数..........................................................................106十二、国内数据...................................................................................107➢橡塑业用电量....