整合东南亚的太阳能和风能-安全和高效策略的状态和前景

Integrating Solar andWind in Southeast Asia Status and outlook for secureand efficient strategies INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Southeast Asia is experiencing one of the fastest electricity demand growthsglobally, with consumption set to double by 2050. While renewable deploymenthas accelerated in recent years, the region’s growing reliance on imported fossil-fuels for electricity generation, exposes countries to volatile fuel prices, potentialsupply disruptions and rising emissions. At the same time, the region possessesvast and diverse renewable resource potential. Variable renewable energy (VRE) - solar and wind - are now among the most cost-competitive generation options and are playing an increasingly important role inthe region’s power sector. VRE presents an opportunity for the region to meetrising demand, support energy security, affordability and climate goals. However,integrating higher shares of VRE can present technical and regulatory challengesthat require changes to system operation and planning. This report provides a comprehensive assessment of the readiness of SoutheastAsia’s power sector to integrate higher shares of VRE - identifying opportunitiesand key considerations. It reviews technical and regulatory measures that arebeingimplemented and applies the IEA’s six-phases of VRE integrationframework to assess potential challenges within the context of each country’spower system. Drawing on this assessment, the report outlines practical actions for policymakers,regulators, utilities and regional entities from 2025 to beyond 2030, correspondingto different phases of VRE integration and readiness. Foreword Southeast Asia’s energy demand has surged over the past decade, driven by rapidurbanisation, economic development and population growth. The region stands ata pivotal moment for its energy future. With rapidly rising electricity demand, thereis a narrow but vital window to shape a secure, affordable and sustainable energyfuture. Today, eight of the ten ASEAN member states have set net zero or carbonneutrality targets. Solar PV and wind, now among the most cost-competitiveelectricity sources in the region, could be central to this transformation. Theregion’s combinedtechnical potential for utility-scale solar PV and onshore andoffshore wind exceeds 20 terawatts– roughly 55 times the current regionalgeneration capacity from all sources. Realising even a fraction of this potentialpresents an opportunity to diversify energy supply, harness domestic resources,reduce fossil fuel import reliance and curb emissions. Yet challenges remain. The region’s growing dependence on fossil fuel importsexposescountries to price volatility and supply disruption risks.Integratingvariable renewable energy (VRE), especially solar and wind, is therefore bothurgent and essential. Over the coming decade, renewable energy is expected tomeet over one-third of Southeast Asia’s electricity demand growth. Achieving thiswill require investments in system flexibility, grid modernisation, interconnectionsandwell-aligned market and policy frameworks.Southeast Asia has anopportunity to accelerate VRE integration by learning from two decades of globalexperience. Building on the biennialSoutheast Asia Energy Outlook,this reportoutlines regional dynamics and insights to accelerate VRE integration whileensuring secure and efficient power systems. Recognising Southeast Asia’s crucial role in shaping global energy trends, theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) recently opened the IEA Regional CooperationCentre based in Singapore. This marks the first IEA office outside its Parisheadquarters. This report was carried out jointly by experts in the IEA Regional CooperationCentre and Paris headquarters. We thank our regional partners for their insightsand hope this work will inform practica