布里斯班中央商务区写字楼市场2025年9月

Demand for higher quality stock remains strong, prime vacancystable despite the first new major supply completion in three years Brisbane leads Australian CBDs in net absorption with strongtenant demand; investment market to lift in next six months JENNELLE WILSONPARTNER, RESEARCH & CONSULTING Sqm net absorption FY-25 Total vacancy Sqm new supply for 2025 Total vacancy rose to 10.7% in July2025, up from 10.2% at the start of theyear. Prime vacancy held steady at8.0% despite new supply in H1,supported by strong demand forPremium space. H1 2025 net absorptiontotalled27,473sqm, driven by 41,905 sqm of primetake-up following new supply,partially offset by a 14,432 sqm declinein secondary as tenants exitedoutdated space. After a three-year hiatus of any newCBD supply, 2025 has marked a returnof activity, with c43,700sqm deliveredin H1-25, and a further 46,700sqm duebefore year end. P.A average prime grosseffective rent growth 5 yrs Average prime yield Total vacancy forecastJanuary 2026 Yields remained stable in Q2 acrossboth prime and secondary assets.Investor interest is steady, with awidening pool of buyersanalysingthemarket, though this has been slow totranslate into completed transactions. Fundamental demand at the upperlevel of the market, coupled withlimited completions in the next fiveyears will see rent growth remain highto July 2030. Despite continued net absorption, newsupply will boost vacancy temporarily.Vacancy is forecast to return to 10.2%by January 2027. Monetary easing progresses; growth outlook still subdued Inflation eased further in Q2, with headline CPI at 2.1%and the trimmed mean at 2.7%, extending the downwardtrend since inflation first re-entered the RBA’s 2–3% targetband in March. In response, the RBA delivered a third 25bpscut this cycle, lowering the cash rate to 3.6% and pointing torecovering demand resilience in thelabourmarket as keysupports. Policymakers expect core inflation to continuemoderating towards the mid-point of the target band,despite some volatility in the headline rate. Economicconditions strengthened in the June 2025 quarter, with GDPexpanding by 0.6%, up from 0.3% previously. Annualgrowth lifted to 1.8%, the fastest in nearly two years,underpinned by an unexpectedly high boost to householdconsumption and modest government spending. Although slowing, the Australian economy continues tobe supported by strong population growth, with around446,000 new residents added over 2024. Although easing,much of this was driven by the post-pandemic offshoremigration surge. After peaking at an annual rate of 2.5% inQ3 2023, national population growth eased to 1.7% in 2024,as Federal migration targets were lowered and policytightened. Queensland recorded annual population growthof 1.9% in 2024, supported by both offshore (56,877 persons)and interstate (25,940 persons) net migration. Net overseasmigration accounted for 55% of Queensland’s growth,reflecting Brisbane’s rising global profile, employmentopportunities and a strong infrastructure pipeline, all macrodrivers for office demand. As at July-25, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%,from 4.3% in June, despite a modest slowing in newemployment over the first half of the year. Employmentgrowth has been heavily concentrated in the non-marketsector, which accounted for 80% of all new jobs created overthe 18 months to June 2025, although early signs of recoveryare emerging in market sector.Long term, the public sectoronly accounts for 15% of total employment. After a strongrebound in office workforce numbers post 2020 with 4%+annual growth rates 2021-2023 and 3.7% in 2024, Brisbane isforecast to have slightly slower growth of 3.5% in 2024,before furtherstabilisingaround 1.8-2% in the years to 2029.This is still forecast to be the highest 5 year office workforcegrowth across the major office markets. Tenant demand for the CBD in 2025 remained anchoredby the Professional Services sector, which accounted for 46%of total leasing activity in the year to date. Within this, thelegal sector dominated, followed by architects andengineers. Government leasing activity was slower in H12025 after a very strong 2024 (more than a third of total take-up), however this pause is expected to be short lived withactive briefs from both State and Federal agencies. The trend of tenants remaining in place continued into H12025, as suitable alternatives are difficult to secure withinrequired timeframes and the cost of newfitoutsremainsprohibitive. Several major occupiers have opted to renewleases rather than relocate, deferring larger accommodationdecisions. Notable examples include Pitcher Partners,extending their multi-level occupation at 345 Queen St, andFTI Consulting, renewing 1,105sqm in the same building.Over the past 18 months, of the 225,265sqm of tenantrequirements tracked, 32% (by NLA) have resulted inrelocations, 16% in renewals, and 45% are still to make adecision reflecting the recent hesitancy to make majorcommitments.