实况报道：热带风暴活动增加

In the Atlantic Basin, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring 3 areas of interest.The feature most concerning for property (re)insurance interests is a Caribbeandisturbance thatcould affect the Carolinas as a tropical stormor even a hurricane earlynext week. Meanwhile in the Tropical Pacific, Super Typhoon Ragasa recently affectedportions of Taiwan and Mainland China with impacts from severe flooding and damagingwinds. Position of Three Tropical Features of Interest in the North Atlantic Basin. Source:NOAA/NHC. Caribbean Disturbance – Potential U.S. Southeast Landfall •A tropical disturbance is producing showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds overportions of Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands, according to the NationalHurricane Center (NHC). •Over the coming days, this feature should move toward the Bahamas, passing oververy warm waters, in a moist environment with reduced wind shear. Accounting forthese factors, the NHC is expecting an 80 percent chance that the feature willdevelop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. Model guidanceindicates probable development into a tropical storm, with possible developmentinto a hurricane within 72 hours. Once the system develops a closed circulation thesituation should begin to clarify.•The forecast track of what should be named “Imelda” could make landfall in theCarolinas within five days, perhapsas early as Monday evening. Another possibilityis that Imelda could recurve back into the Atlantic. The factors in play include afrontal system to the west as it clears the mainland, and Tropical Storm Humbertoto the east. If Humberto gets close enough it could cause Imelda to pivot further tothe east (called the “FujiwaraEffect”– where the circulation of two storms causetheir paths to pivot around each other). The timing and interaction of thedisturbance with these two features over the coming days will determine theultimate track of the storm. Current model guidance indicates the Carolinas landfallis more probable. However, several runs of a single model with slightly varied initialconditions (known as an ensemble) show a great deal of spread in scenarios.•As the situation evolves over the coming days some clarity should develop on boththe forecast track and intensity. GFS Weather Model Ensemble Tracks for Caribbean Disturbance (future Imelda). Notespread in track scenarios on the same model with slightly adjusted initial conditions –reflecting low forecast confidence. Source: TropicalTidbits.com. Tropical Storm Humberto •In the Central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Humberto has maximum sustained winds of50 mph with a northwest motion of 8 mph.•Humberto is expected by the NHC to move between the U.S. Mainland andBermuda through mid-week, while strengthening into a major hurricane in the meantime. The track and intensity of Humberto will be a critical factor for the otherCaribbean disturbance likely to be named Imelda. Position and Best Track for Hurricane Humberto. Source: NOAA/NHC. Hurricane Gabrielle •In the eastern Atlantic, Hurricane Gabrielle is moving eastward at 31 mph as aminimal category-1 hurricane. Hurricane conditions are an active threat for theAzores where hurricane warnings are in place.•Gabrielle is expected by the NHC to begin extratropical transition (into a frontalsystem) while weakening to tropical storm strength as it approaches the coast ofPortugal this weekend, where gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected. Position and Best Track for Hurricane Gabrielle. Source: NOAA/NHC. West Pacific- Super Typhoon Ragasa •In the southern province of Guangdong ofMainland China, Ragasa made landfallWednesday around 17:00 local time (10:00 UTC) near Yangjiang City.•Just prior to landfall at 06:00 UTC September 24, the Typhoon had 1-minutesustained winds of roughly 120 mph (193 km/hr), equivalent to a category-3 on theSaffir-Simpson Scaleaccording to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).Minimum central pressure was reported at 950 mb per the Japan MeteorologicalAgency.•Several coastal cities in the areawere affected from hurricane windsand severecoastal flooding, withinterior flooding due to excessive rainfall.At least 90 peoplewere injured in Hong Kong, and evacuations affected at least two million in theseaffected areas.•In Taiwan, at least14fatalities have been reported aftersevere flooding in the east,following the burst of a barrier lake in Hualien County Tuesday. At least 33 remainmissing with 32 injured per media reports.Ragasa passed south of Taiwan but stillbrought strong winds and excessive rainfall, withflood impactsin mountainousareas.•Ragasa also rendered severe impacts to portions of the Philippines, where the stormmade landfall at peak intensity on the Panuitan Island in northern Cagayan province.At least ten fatalities were reported in the Philippines.•The remnants of Ragasa continue to bring the threat of gusty winds and heavyrainfall with flooding toportions of Vietnam and Laos Thursday.•Super Typh