现场活动报道：Melissa将于周二以5级成绩登陆牙买加

Key Headlines •Current Conditions: At 8 AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center has listed Melissaas a 160-mph category 5 hurricane 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Melissa hasintensified by 15 mph since 11 pm last night and 90 mph since Saturday morning. Thecurrent estimated motion is west at 3 mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaicaand Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. Hurricanewatches are in effect for southeastern and central Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands.Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas. •Jamaica and Cuba Impacts: Melissa is forecasted to continue west until thisafternoon when a slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected, followed by anortheastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing through at leastThursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or overwestern Jamaica late tonight and early Tuesday as a category 5 hurricane. Melissa is thenforecasted to move across southeastern Cuba late Tuesday night as a category 3 hurricane.In Jamaica, destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight. Windspeeds at the top and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30percent stronger than the sustained winds and gusts listed by the National HurricaneCenter. Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches with storm total localmaxima of 40 inches possible in eastern Jamaica. •Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Impacts: Melissa is forecasted to move across thesoutheastern and Central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday.Sustained wind speeds are expected to be near 100 mph even after Cuba and Jamaicalandfall, therefore significant wind impacts are possible for these islands. Storm surgecoupled with 6-12 inches of rain on these islands is projected to bring major floodinglocally. •Potential Bermuda Impacts: Late Thursday into early Friday, there is potential forMelissa to make landfall in Bermuda as a category 1 or 2 hurricane. Melissa track errors onday 4 have averaged close to 150 miles and intensity forecast errors averaged over 20 mphso this extended outlook is very uncertain. Tuesday afternoon, uncertainty for this forecastlength will reduce significantly after the storm makes landfall in Cuba and Jamaica. •Jamaica Landfall Analogs: Five major (category 3 or greater) hurricanes on recordhave made landfall in Jamaica, with Hurricane Gilbert (1988) the only Category 4 hurricaneto make a direct landfall on the island. Gilbert made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. If the radius around Jamaica is increased to storms that have passedwithin 50 miles, 5 category 4-5 hurricanes have tracked this close to Jamaica with Gilbertbeing the only direct landfall. Therefore, Hurricane Melissa has no direct analog as it iscurrently forecasted to make landfall at 160 mph in southwestern Jamaica. Source:GOES 19 geocolor satellite image of Hurricane Melissa, captured 10/27/2025 at8:10 am EDT Additional links of interest National Hurricane Center