应对高债务和迫在眉睫的支出压力的财政护栏

Fiscal Guardrails againstHigh Debt and LoomingSpending Pressures Prepared by Julien Acalin, Virginia Alonso, Clara Arroyo,Raphael Lam, Leonardo Martinez, Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen,Francisco Roch, Galen Sher, and Alexandra Solovyeva SDN/2025/004 IMF Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs) showcasepolicy-related analysis and research beingdeveloped by IMF staff members and arepublished to elicit comments and to encouragedebate.The views expressed in Staff DiscussionNotes are those of the author(s) and do notnecessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025SEP IMF Staff Discussion NotesFiscal Affairs Department and Research Department Fiscal Guardrails against Rising Debt and Looming Spending Pressures Prepared by Julien Acalin, Virginia Alonso, Clara Arroyo, W. Raphael Lam, Leonardo Martinez, Anh DinhMinh Nguyen, Francisco Roch, Galen Sher, and Alexandra Solovyeva1 Authorized for distribution by Vitor Gaspar and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas September 2025 IMF Staff Discussion Notes (SDNs)showcase policy-related analysis and research beingdeveloped by IMF staff members and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in Staff Discussion Notes are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily representthe views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Abstract: Many countries have adopted fiscal rules to foster fiscal discipline, but compliance has been mixed.Recent policy shifts and heightened policy uncertainty further intensify spending pressures and persistent debtchallenges, underscoring the need for stronger fiscal guardrails. Results from a major update of IMF databaseson fiscal rules and councils suggest that two-thirds of countries have revised their fiscal rules but deficits anddebt continue to be well above countries’ rule limits. Robust correction mechanisms, with predefined timelinesand measures, could better guide the return to rule limits and reduce sovereign spreads. In addition, supportivefiscal institutions, such as independent fiscal councils, reinforce compliance. Finally, revisions to fiscal rules tomeet spending pressures should be carefully designed to preserve their integrity and transparency. Recommended Citation:Acalinand others2025. “Fiscal Guardrails against Rising Debt and LoomingSpending Pressures.”IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN2025/004, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. ISBN:JEL Classification Numbers:Keywords: JAcalin@imf.org;VAlonsoalbarran@imf.org;MArroyo@imf.org;WLam@imf.org;FRoch@imf.org;LMartinez4@imf.org;ANguyen3@imf.org;GSher@imf.org;ASolovyeva@imf.org. Author’s E-Mail Address: 1Preparation of this Staff Discussion Note was supervised by Era Dabla-Norris and Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, withguidance from Emine Boz and Davide Furceri. The team is led by W. Raphael Lam and Francisco Roch with membersfrom Fiscal Affairs Department, Institute of Capacity Development, and Research Department. The authors thank GitaGopinath, Vitor Gaspar, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Cigdem Aslan, Carolina Renteria Rodriguez, and participants in theIMF Workshop on Fiscal Guardrails in Brussels in March 2025 and IMF Workshop on Fiscal Rules and Councils inSantiago in June 2025 for constructive feedback and suggestions. The authors also thank IMF staff from countryteams who provided inputs to the 2024 update of IMF Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Councils databases. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY_____________________________________________________________________________________________3 I.INTRODUCTION ____________________________________________________________________________________________5II.RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN FISCAL RULES FRAMEWORKS _____________________________________________6III.DESIGNING FISCAL RULES TO IMPROVE COMPLIANCE AND MITIGATE SOVEREIGN RISK___________10A.Selecting a Fiscal Anchor in a Risk-Based Fiscal Rule Framework___________________________________________11B.Establishing a Corrective Mechanism _______________________________________________________________________14C.Strengthening Fiscal Institutions and Governance __________________________________________________________18IV.SHOULD FISCAL RULES BE REVISED TO ADDRESS SPENDING PRESSURES? ___________________________21V.CONCLUSIONS _____________________________________________________________________________________________27REFERENCES _______________________________________________________________________________________________________28 FIGURES 1. Fiscal Rules on the Rise: 1990–2024________________________________________________________________________72. Design Features of Fiscal Rules_____________________________________________________________________________73. Compliance with Budget Balance Rules ____________________________________________________________________74. Fiscal Rules "Strength" Index _______________________________________________________________________________95. Provision of Escape Clause in the Fiscal Rules Frameworks _____