估计气候变化的财务影响的方法（英）

Approaches to estimating financialimpacts of climate change Ipieca workshop summary Climate change Advancing environmentaland social performanceacross the energy transition www.ipieca.org This publication has been developed to support the implementation of Ipieca’s missionand vision. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information,it is intended to provide general guidance only. It is not designed to provide legal or otheradvice, nor should it be relied upon as a substitute for appropriate technical expertise orprofessional advice. All attempts have been made to ensure that the information is correctat the date of publication. This publication does not constitute a mandatory commitmentwhich members of Ipieca are obliged to adopt. The views and conclusions expressed hereindo not necessarily reflect the views of all Ipieca members or the individuals, companies andinstitutions that contributed to this publication. While reasonable precautions have been taken to ensure that the information contained inthis publication is accurate and timely, this publication is distributed without warranty of anykind, express or implied. Ipieca neither endorses nor accepts responsibility for the contentor availability of any website referred to, or linked to, in this publication. The responsibility forthe interpretation and use of this publication lies with the user and in no event will Ipiecaor any of its members past, present or future, regardless of their negligence, assumeliability for any foreseeable or unforeseeable use made thereof, which liability is herebyexcluded. Consequently, such use is at the recipient’s own risk on the basis that any use by therecipient constitutes agreement to the terms of this disclaimer. This disclaimer should beconstrued in accordance with English law. Acknowledgements This workshop was organised by Ipieca’s Adaptation and Resilience Task Force. Approaches to estimating financialimpacts of climate change Ipieca workshop summary The global oil and gas association for advancing environmental and social performance across the energy transition Contents 3Appendices19 Introduction Appendix 1: 10 key steps for the design of a19business use case to frame climate changerisk assessment Session summaries5 1. Setting the scene: economics and finance5of climate change impacts and adaptation Appendix 2: Agenda20 2. Climate risk assessment and addressingthe energy transition: perspectives fromthe insurance industry 3. Deep dive: adaptation decision13making, economics and finance 4. Shell case study: An approach to16developing guidance on climate adaptation Introduction Ipieca hosted a virtual workshop on 12 March 2025 on‘Approaches to estimating financial impacts of climatechange’. This was the third virtual workshop Ipiecahosted in a series on climate change adaptation andresilience. The first workshop covered ‘The current stateof climate change science—physical impacts and risks’- a summary report can be accessed here. The secondwas on ‘Voluntary and regulatory adaptation disclosurerequirements and developing good practices’ -a summaryreport can be accessed here. KEY MESSAGES 1.In practice assessing the potential financialimpacts from climate change and appropriateadaptation measures can be very challenging asanalyses are extremely site and context specificand climate-related risks vary dynamically overtime. In addition, there is also a great deal ofuncertainty associated with climate projectionsand potential climate-related risks varysignificantly between a 2°C and 4°C world The purpose of this third workshop was to: •Build an understanding around the importance ofand latest developments for estimating the financialimpacts of climate change•Highlight the insurance industry’s perspective oncompanies’ financial impacts assessments of climatechange•Explore approaches, methodologies and challengesrelated to estimating the financial impacts of climatechange•Review a member case study from Shell – ‘Anapproach to developing guidance on climateadaptation’•Help identify future work for the task force and Ipieca 2.Climate risk assessments are now anticipatinggreater economic impacts compared to thoseconducted 5-10 years ago, however, there isregional variation, with the greatest impactsprojected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa andAsia due to their existing higher temperatures 3.Insured and uninsured losses from weather-related extremes have significantly increased inthe past three decades. In addition, traditionallylosses were more closely tied to peak perilevents (high intensity and rare) whereas morerecently significant losses are being incurredfrom non-peak peril events (lower intensity andmore frequent) 4.Assessing the insurability of new climatetechnologies is complex and takes time,however, partnerships between companiesand the insurance industry can ensure riskengineering experts are involved in projects asearly as their demonstration phase. This help