亚洲宏观策略债券供求监测-117678201

Asia Fixed IncomeAsia Macro Strategy Date 8 September 2025 Notes Bond Demand-Supply Monitor Joey Chung Highlights from this edition of our monthly Asia bond demand-supply monitor; Strategist+65-6423 8298 1.CGBs. Ultra-long dated special CGB supply should peak in September atan estimated size of RMB 235bn, easing the pressure on the back-end ofthe curve into Q4. We are cautious on banks' demand for short-dated CGBsgiven the ongoing equity rally. Hazel Lai Macro Strategist+852-2203-6150 Vaninder Singh, CFAMacro Strategist+65-6423 8947 2.IGBs. We expect fiscal slippage from the new GST 2.0 rates should notimpact IGB supply – with more bills supply – while back end demand forbonds should recover with the increase in life insurance premiums and EPFpayrolls. Perry Kojodjojo Strategist+852-2203 6153 3.IndoGB. Substantial net bond supply in 2026 will likely keep the IndoGBcurve steep, while liquidity dynamics continue to benefit the front end. Sameer GoelMacro Strategist+65-642-36973 4.KTB. We anticipate the average monthly gross KTB supply to be KRW 21tnduring September to November. Banks' demand for short-dated KTB islikely to remain strong as the deposit-loan growth gap has further widened. Bryant XuStrategist+65-6423 5558 5.MGS. EPF and KWAP allocations to MGS & MGII have slowed likely due torich valuations, which could help steepen the curve further. 6.RPGBs. Auction cancellations are likely in Q4, which should supportRPGBs. However, a hawkish BSP is a concern. 7.SGS. Flushed liquidity and strong demand from banks is keeping SGSyields depressed. 8.ThaiGB. FY25-26 supply in Thailand should not differ too much from FY24-25 – which coupled with strong domestic demand – should keep theThaiGBcurve flat. China CGB supply peaks in September.Special CGB supply should peak this month, withRMB 996bn of the targeted 1.3tn ultra-long dated CGB already issued (77% of total).Four auctions will take place at the back end of the curve: one for 20Y, two for 30Y,and one for 50Y, with a total estimated size of 235bn. The program wraps up inOctober with an additional 71bn from the 30Y CGB, helping to ease pressure on theback end of the curve into Q4. Newly issued CGBs see yield gains.Three new CGBs were issued in August (3Y,10Y, 30Y). With VAT applicable for onshore investors, the yield pick-up wassignificant, especially for the 10Y and 30Y CGBs, showing increases of ~6bp and 8 September 2025Asia Macro Strategy Notes 12bp over existing securities. This aligns with our forecasts of an average of 7-9bpyield pick-up for the 10-30Y CGBs. Foreign investors, exempt from VAT, may findthese new issues appealing, with two more issuances (2Y and 7Y) scheduled onSeptember 12. Banks’ demand under scrutiny.The CGB yield curve has steepened, with the2Y/10Y spread widening by 14bp. Recent sell-offs appear driven by asset rotationamid an equity rally, leading to a decline in household deposits and a rise in non-bank financial deposits. Banks have emerged as the largest CGB purchasers YTD,taking up 78% of net supply, up from 49% in 2024. If the equity rally continues, wecould see banks reducing CGB demand. A key risk is if authorities intensify effortsto curb the equity rally through stricter regulations on margin trading and short-selling. India Following the announcement of the new GST 2.0 rates, DB Economics has revisedIndia’s fiscal deficit target to 4.5% from 4.4% earlier worth an additional INR 0.4-0.5tn. For now, we do not expect changes to the gross issuance amount of 14.8tnand expect the RBI to accommodate any additional funding needs via higher billssupply. The release of the half-yearly issuance calendar towards end-Septemberwould clarify this. Instead, the risks to the outlook are from; 1.fiscal deficits sustaining at 4.5% with the fiscal consolidation exercise likelyat an end; and2.elevated 5.5tn of maturities in FY26-27 compared to 4tn for FY25-26. In the absence of further switches, these two factorscould push gross supply inFY26-27 to ~17.5-18tnvs 14.8tn currently programmed for FY25-26 (before anyGST-related adjustments) – a near-18% jump in gross supply against ~10% nominalGDP. Meanwhile, on the demand side,back-end demand should recoverwith recentdata continuing to point towards recovering life insurance premiums and EPF 8 September 2025Asia Macro Strategy Notes payrolls. This should help cap steepness in the curve, particularly for 10Y/30Y. The 2Y/10Y spread is also well-adjusted to higher fiscal risks at this stage, in ourview. As we highlighted recently, 0.4% of GDP in extra fiscal supply is already pricedin as fiscal term premium, which seems appropriate at this stage given the risks atplay. Indonesia Net bond supply for 2026 is expected to be substantial at IDR 749tn, compared to585tn for 2025.Of the 749tn, 628tn could be net IndoGB supply if the DMOcontinues its current practice of issuing 84% in local currency, representing a yoyincrease of 30%. We expect pre-funding of 45-85tn to o