拉脱维亚共和国：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；拉脱维亚共和国执行主任的发言

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;STAFF REPORT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVEDIRECTOR FORTHE REPUBLIC OFLATVIA Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withthe Republic ofLatvia, the following documents have been released and are included inthis package: •APress Releasesummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsSeptember 15, 2025,consideration of the staff report that concluded the Article IVconsultation withthe Republic ofLatvia. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onSeptember 15, 2025, following discussions that ended onJune6,2025, with the officials ofthe Republic ofLatviaon economic developmentsand policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed onJuly 30, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •AStatement by the Executive Directorforthe Republic ofLatvia. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultationwith the Republic of Latvia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Latvia’s successful convergence to euro area income levels has slowed. GDP per capitahas fallen behind, due to weak total factor productivity and limited capital deepening. Thegovernment faces growing fiscal demands from pensions, health care, defense, energysecurity, and climate transition, requiring preserved fiscal space for future crises. •The fiscal strategy should focus on mobilizing revenue and improving the efficiency ofpublic spending, to preserve fiscal buffers and address rising medium- and long-termspending pressures. Also,to ensure adequate retirement income, the defined contributionpillars of the pension system should be strengthened. •Financial sector policies should reassess the solidarity contribution on banks and continueto monitor banks’ exposure to the commercial real estate sector. Structural reforms shouldtarget measures to promote investment and allocative efficiency, which are crucial toreignite growth, accelerate convergence, and increase government revenue. Washington, DC – September 19, 2025:On September 15, 2025, the Executive Board of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for the Republic ofLatvia.1 Latvia’s growth contracted while inflationary pressures eased. Following strong growth in2023, Latvia’s economy contracted by 0.4 percent in 2024 largely driven by a decline inprivate investment. Public investment also contributed negatively, as the governmentstruggled to maintain the unusually high absorption of EU funds. Headline inflationexperienced a significant decline due to lower energy and food prices, while strong nominalwage growth kept core inflation elevated. The inflation momentum has begun to reverse inrecent months with both headline and core inflation increasing. Growth is expected to rebound in 2025, despite downside risks. Real GDP growth is projectedto recover to about 1 percent, mainly supported by public investment. Headline inflation isprojected to rise in 2025 due to higher energy and food prices, while core inflation isanticipated to decrease but remain high due to persistent services inflation. Downside risks togrowth dominate and stem mainly from worsening geopolitical tensions, deeper geoeconomicfragmentation, spillovers from new tariffs, slower growth in trading partners, delays in theabsorption of EU funds, higher energy and food prices, and increased electricity costs. Astrong recovery in Latvia’s main trading partners, a boost in confidence from improved security, a faster-than-expected disbursement of EU funds, and a swift implementation ofstructural reforms could lead to higher-than-expected growth. Latvia's government is facing significant medium- and long-term spending pressures,compounded by new near-term challenges. Medium and long-term spending pressures drivenby population aging (pensions, health care), defense spending, investments for energysecurity, and the costs of the green transition pose fiscal challenges. Although direct trade andfinancial exposures to the U.S. are small, indirect trade and confidence channels may stillaffect economic and financial stability through financial contagion. Also, an escalation of tradetensions between the EU and its main trading partners could affect Latvia