流量观察：从无形之手到有形之拳

Invisible Hand to Visible Fist 05 September 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 35.1%, bitcoin 18.4%, stocks 15.0%, HY bonds 8.6%, IG8.6%, govt bonds 6.3%, commodities 3.8%, cash 2.9%, US dollar-9.3%, oil -11.7% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Only thing stopping the Nikkei going to 60k is our domestic politics,”Tokyoinvestor;“Surprise will be Xi-Trump deal trading China FX appreciation for lower UStariffssending Hang Seng well above 30k,”Singapore investor. The Price is Right: UK long bond yield 5.6% (highest since‘98), France 4.4% (highestsince‘09), Japan 3.2% (highest since’99), US tests 5%; risk assets chill, discounting PKO(Price-Keeping Operations) policies to prevent disorderly jump in debt costs (e.g. YCC,QE,Operation Twist); we long gold into YCC & say lower yields (PKO + Fed credible ratecuts) =broadening of stock market via bond sensitives (biotech, REITs, small cap). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: watch the price action not the number…most bullishoutcome for riskassets= strong >150k Aug payroll and Treasury yieldsfall(the full Goldilocks)…mostbearishfor risk assets = -ve payrollandTreasury yieldsrise(on debt default risks). Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: Nixon‘70-‘74 analog: political pressure on Fed/FX to easefinancial conditions for pre-election boom = risk-on, Mag7-on (Nifty 50 back then), USTyieldslower until 2ndwave inflation; Nixon analog says‘25/’26“price controls”neededtostopinflation…long sectors that“outpace China”, short sectors that“whip inflation”. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Chart2:TheNixon AnalogDow Jones Industrial Averageand Fed funds rate (inverted) from 1968 to 1975 Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenotsuitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 13 to 15.12873739 Timestamp: 05 September 2025 02:09AM EDT Weekly Flows: $51.8bn to cash, $22.2bn to bonds, $17.6bn to stocks, $6.5bn to gold,$0.5bn to crypto. Flows to Know: •Cash: biggest 5-week inflow ($200bn) since Jan'25;•Bonds: inflows ($358bn) every week since April (77% of which to IG/HY/EM debt);•Gold: biggest weekly inflow ($6.5bn) since Apr'25;•EM stocks: biggest inflow ($3.2bn) in 11 weeks;•Tech: biggest weekly inflow ($4.3bn) since Apr'25;•Financials: biggest 2-week inflow ($5.2bn) since Jan’22. BofA Private Clients: $4.1tn AUM…64.1% stocks, 18.2% bonds, 10.6% cash (lowestsince Sep’18); private clientsextending duration(since 2023 exposure to T-bills down$28bn, exposure to T-notes up $15bn–Chart 19); allocation to Magnificent 7 back toDec'24 highs (= 37% of top 200 stock holdings); in ETFs GWIM buying EM debt, HYbonds (“risky debt”), industrials, and selling healthcare, energy, staples past 4 weeks. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: dips to 5.9 from 6.0 on weaker inflows to HY bonds andfalling global stock index breadth offsetting less bearish hedge fund positioning(reducing longs on 2-year USTs & Japanese yen). Long Gold, Bonds, Breadth into YCC •Long bond yields…UK 5.6% (highest since‘98), France 4.4% (highest since‘09),Japan 3.2% (highest since’99), US tests 5%; bond vigilantes correctly targetingmost weak, unpopular governments…UK PM Starmer approval rating 11% (lowestsince Truss–Chart 4), France Macron approval 19% (lowest since‘16), Japan LiberalDemocratic Party approval 24% (lowest since‘12), and bond investors discounting afuture of populist policies as“incumbents”ousted from office in 32 of 43 electionspast 18 months; •But no