央行气候沟通对绿色债券的影响（英）

The Impact of Central BankCommunication on Sustainable Finance Marina Conesa Martinez WP/25/169 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025AUG IMF Working PaperResearch Department The Impact of Central Bank Communication on Sustainable Finance InstrumentsPrepared by Marina Conesa* Authorized for distribution by Petia Topalova IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper analyzes how central banks' communication influences corporate financial decisionsand instruments. Empirically, we find that more active central bank communication is associated with a rise infirms' green bond issuance. The effect seems to be particularly strong among commercial banks, firms closely WORKING PAPERS The Impact of Central Bank Prepared by Marina Conesa Martinez The Impact of Central Bank Communication on Sustainable Finance Instruments Marina Conesa Martinez2This version: July 2025 Abstract This paper analyzes how central banks' communication influences corporate financial decisions andinstruments. Empirically, we find that more active central bank communication is associated with a rise infirms' green bond issuance. The effect seems to be particularly strong among commercial banks, firms Keywords: Central banking, Communication, Climate change, Green bonds, Sustainable finance, Natural language JEL codes:E58, Q54, E44, G32, C55, C32 I.Introduction Weather-related events, such as natural disasters and more slow-moving changes in the physicalenvironment, such as rising temperatures and sea levels, impact economies and financial systems throughnumerous channels.3Risks from such events not only affect economic stability but also pose long-termchallenges to achieving sustainable growth (NGFS, 2024). To mitigate these risks and align with the ParisAgreement’s goal of limiting global warming to below 2°C, an estimated $4.5 trillion in annual investments Green bonds have emerged as a key financial instrument in this effort (Flaherty et al., 2017; Maltais and Nykvist,2020). The European Investment Bank issued the first green bond in 2007, followed by the World Bank in2008. The market has experienced rapid growth over the last decade, surpassing $2.5 trillion in cumulativeissuance by 2023, reflecting increasing investor demand for instruments that align financial flows with Green bonds promote green finance by supporting renewable energy, such as wind, solar and hydropower,improving energy efficiency, and reducing carbon emissions (Al Mamun et al., 2022, Hesary et al., 2023;Li et al., 2023). Beyond environmental benefits, they promote innovation by easing financial constraintsand encouraging sustainable transformation in firms (Wu et al., 2022). Green bonds also enhance theinformation contained in stock prices by increasing transparency, and reducing information asymmetry The integrity of the green bond market depends on robust frameworks and standards to ensure transparencyand accountability. Market initiatives have sought to provide standardized, transparent, and reliable criteriato determine the conditions under which a bond can be considered “green”. Two key standards dominatethe market: the International Capital Markets Association (ICMA) Green Bond Principles (GBP) and the impactful projects.4The CBI certification complements the GBP by requiring third-party verification, Central to address rising risks from weather events is the involvement of diverse stakeholders. Governmentsplay a pivotal role, as they can establish overarching policies and frameworks to meet internationalcommitments such as the Paris Agreement. However, central banks also face new challenges to theirtraditional mandates of price and financial stability (NGFS, 2019). From the perspective of price stability,natural disasters can disrupt supply chains, drive up energy and food prices, and create inflationarypressures. These pressures complicate monetary policy, as central banks must navigate short-term priceshocks while maintaining long-term stability. Similarly, regulatory changes linked to the transition towardnew energy sources can influence market expectations, introducing volatility and uncertainty. In terms offinancial stability, physical risks can erode the value of collateral, disrupt financial flows, and destabilize Indeed, these news considerations are increasingly becoming integral to central bank communicationstrategies. In this paper we study how central bank communication via speeches can potentially impactfirms’ financial decisions to issue green bonds, and whether this effect is higher for certain types of firms.The intuition is that by clearly acknowledging the risks of weather events for the economy and signalingtheir commitments and