美国资助疟疾的经济影响：过去二十年间直接与间接效益评估

ASSESSINGTHE DIRECT AND INDIRECT BENEFITSOVER THELAST TWO DECADES SEPTEMBER2025 TABLE OF CONTENTS 2.1 Economic and Social Consequences...........................................................................................32.2 Global Burden of Malaria..............................................................................................................4 3. HOW US FUNDING HAS HELPED TO ALLEVIATE THE MALARIA BURDEN..............................8 3.1 Revisiting the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016-2030..................................................83.2 Funding for Malaria Control and Elimination.................................................................................9 4.ECONOMIC IMPACT OF US MALARIA FUNDING IN RECIPIENT COUNTRIES.........................15 4.1 Methodological Approach...........................................................................................................154.2 TheCost of Reducing Malaria Case Incidence..........................................................................15 5. BROADER BENEFITS SUPPORTED BY US FUNDING FOR MALARIA......................................22 5.1 Procurement and Manufacturing................................................................................................225.2 Health Systems...........................................................................................................................235.3 Families and Communities..........................................................................................................27 A1Countries Unaffected by Malaria................................................................................................36A2Countries Affected by Malaria....................................................................................................37 ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS AFRICA...........................................................................................38 ABBREVIATIONS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since malaria was identified in the late 19thcentury, 108 countries have been declared free of thedisease. Yet, 80 nations remainheavilyaffected.Between 2015 and 2023, malaria cases grew byalmost2% annually, reaching 263 million, while deaths rose to about597,000—equivalent to 68deathsevery hour.Nearly 95% of these deaths occurredin Africa, with over half concentrated inNigeria, the Democratic Republic ofCongo(DRC), Niger, and Tanzania.Children underthe age of Global interventions prevented 2.2 billion cases and 12.7 million deaths between 2000 and 2023.Despite these successes, theworld isoff trackto meetthe2030 goalsfor reducing malaria cases anddeaths: incidence reduction isalmost65% behind target, and mortality reductionlagsbyabout60%.Without accelerated measures,notwithstanding recent cuts to foreign assistance from advancedeconomies,the2030targetswill remain beyond reach.Themost significantobstacleissecuring HOW US FUNDING HAS HELPED TO REDUCE THE MALARIA BURDEN External financing has been critical, especiallyfor national malaria programs (NMPs)in low-incomecountries with limitedstatebudgetsand inadequate mobilization of financial resources. The GlobalFund (GF) and the USPresident’sMalaria Initiative (PMI) provide the majority of resources, with theUnited States (US)historicallybeingthe single largest donorfor malaria combating efforts. Between2010 and 2023, the US supplied 37% of global malaria fundingon averagethrough bilateral andmultilateral channels.AnnualUS disbursements rose from $16 million in 2003 to $1.4 billion in 2022, MALARIA CASES AVERTED DUE TO US FUNDING TO COMBAT THE DISEASE From 2003 to 2023, US malaria funding throughtheGF and PMIpreventedan estimated 646 millionmalariacases,with thenumber of annualcases avertedgrowingfromoverhalf a million in 2003 tojust over46 million in 2023. Without US support,thetotalnumber ofcases overthis period wouldhave been 12.7% higher—nearly 5.7 billioncasesinstead of 5.1 billion.Correspondingly, malariacase incidence would have been 76.9 per 1,000 people at risk if the US had not disbursed funding tocontrol the disease, rather than the realized 68.2 per 1,000 population.US funding reduced malaria Recentcutsin foreign aid threaten these achievements.In early 2025,the US governmentcancelledthousands of health-related grants, disrupting global programsand promptingother key bilateraldonor countries toreducetheir foreign assistance initiatives this year.Curtailing international aid ECONOMIC IMPACT OF US FUNDING FOR MALARIA CONTROL Malaria undermines economic development by reducinglaborproductivity, raising healthcare costs,anddiscouraging investment. It alsodisruptshuman capital formation,deterstourism, and divertspublic spending fromothergrowth-enhancing initiatives.Applying a robust macroeconomic fundingdeployed viatheGF and PMIto control the diseasehaveresulted in a collectiveincrease ingross domestic product (GDP) ofan estimated $90.3 billion between 2003 and 2023. The returnsonUS funds