2025年前三季度的成果回顾：超出预期的AI变现

3QFY25resultsreview: better-than-expected AImonetization Target PriceUS$590.00Up/Downside68.3%Current PriceUS$350.55 Adobereported 3QFY25 results:total revenue was up by 11%YoY toUS$5.99bn, and non-GAAP net income increased by 8% YoY to US$2.25bn,both largely in line with consensusestimates. AI product momentum was betterthan expectation, with AI-influenced ARR surpassing US$5bn andAI-first ARRexceeding US$250mn year-end target one quarter ahead. Given the solidmomentum of AI solutions and stronggo-to-market execution, the companyraises FY25 total revenue guidance to US$23.65-23.70bn (previous: US$23.50-23.60bn) and digital media ending ARR growth to +11.3% YoY (previous:+11.0% YoY). We raise our FY25-27E total revenue forecast by 0-1% to factorin the better-than-expected AI product performance. We roll over our valuationwindow to FY26E, and maintain our target price of US$590.0 based on 25xFY26E non-GAAP PE(previous: US$590.0based on30x FY25E PE). MaintainBUY. Software & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFAfranktao@cmbi.com.hk StrongDigital Media business fuelled by AI-infused and AI-firstsolutions.Digital Mediarevenueincreased by 12% YoY to US$4.46bn in3QFY25,with ARR up by 12%YoY to US$18.59bn.The BusinessProfessionals&ConsumersGroupdelivered a solid performance, mainlydriven by strong adoption of Acrobat AIAssistantand product innovation.Ending units for Acrobat AI Assistant grew by 40% QoQ, andAcrobat Mobileending ARR grewby over30%YoY in 3QFY25. The Creative Professionals& Creators Group was also strong, as the company continued to integrateAI into its flagship applications. Firefly app MAU grew by 30% QoQ, with theconsumption of Fireflyservicesup by32%QoQ in 3QFY25. Firefly app iswell-positioned to attract next-generation creators, with first-time Adobesubscribers through this app up by 20% QoQ in 3QFY25. Joanna Ma(852) 3761 8838joannama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Digital Experience businessachievedsolid growth.Digital Experiencesubscription revenue grew by 11% YoY to US$1.37bnin 3QFY25, fuelledby over 40% YoY growth of AEP and Apps ending ARR, strong adoption ofAEM and solid demand for GenStudio. The AEPAI Assistantadoption wasstrong, with c.70% ofeligible AEP customers using this function.Thecompany plans to launch theLLM Optimizer, which will help brands improvevisibility and useracquisitionacross various LLM platforms. AImonetizationahead ofexpectation.Adobe’sAI-influencedendingARRsurpassedUS$5bn in 3QFY25 (incl. Creative Cloud Pro and Acrobat), andmanagementexpectsit to further rise as a percent of total ARR, as thecompany continues to integrate AI into its offerings. AI-first ARR exceededyear-end target of US$250mn in 3QFY25 (incl.Firefly, Acrobat AIAssistantandGenStudio for PerformanceMarketing), driven by the strong AI productadoption. Through integrating both first-party and third-party AI models intocreators’workflows, Adobe is positioned to become theoperatingsystemfor creative work in the AI era. Source: FactSet Business forecasts update and valuation Valuation We valueAdobeat US$246bn (US$590.0per share) based on25x 2026EP/E. Our targetP/Eis at adiscountto the sector average (40x),as Adobe is at a more mature businessstage with slower earnings growth. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report,in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of hisor her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conductissued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months C