2025年上半年拉各斯市场更新

LagosMarket Update H1 2025 EconomicUpdate Nigeria’s economy felt like a car finallyshifting into gear. Following overduereforms and aggressive 2024tightening (MPR up 750bps) tostabilize the naira and controlinflation. H1 2025 offered glimmers ofprogress. The naira's appreciation toN1,539.24/$ by end of June 2025(from N1,661.12/$ at end of 2024) andits stabilization within theN1,400–1,600/$ band were tangible Headline inflation figures show aremarkable drop, from 34.8% inDecember 2024 to 22.97% by May2025, however, a closer look revealsthis isn't purely a result of coolingprice pressures. The decline washeavily assisted by a statistical CPIrebasing. The CBN held rates at27.5%, sustaining monetary pressure 22.97% Inflation fell to 22.97%,heavily assisted bystatistical CPI rebasing. Yet even as prices rallied, outputconstraints continued to define the oilsector in H1 2025, averaging 1.6–1.7mbpd, falling short of the 2.06 mbpdbudget projection. At the same time,the global environment is becomingharder to predict. A new world order istaking shape, with both the politicaland economic landscape shifting inways that are still unfolding. Theseunprecedented change have mademarkets more uncertain, as investorstry to make sense of rising tensions, uncertainty and safe-haven demandpresents a tough balance. Whilehigher oil prices offer some support,the broader global pressure adds threat of external headwinds,underscored the bold economic Despite the policy wins, the delicatedomestic recovery is now being testedby significant external pressures.Global oil markets experiencedsignificant volatility in H1 2025. Pricesfaced downward pressure in May, withBrent dipping toward $65 per barrel onconcerns about global oversupply andsoftening demand, threateningNigeria’s revenue targets. This trend Key Insights Volatility in Oil Prices andProduion concerns threatenunderlying budget assumptionsInflation dropped significantly to22.97% in May 2025 from 34.8% inDecember 2024 due to the CPIrebasing ResidentialMarket Review trend has resulted in a noticeablemigration towards suburban anddeveloping areas like Ikorodu andIbeju-Lekki, where rental rates areconsiderably lower than in urbancentres. This shift underscores a residential market. Key Insights To rapidly boost housing supply,Lagos State is deploying PPPs acrossa governance spectrum, fromenabling private developers toco-delivering targeted projects. Thismulti-scalar approach spans newtowns (e.g. Ikoyi-Ibeju corridor),neighborhoods, and estate-level Alongside enabling the privateseor, the government, throughagencies like the LBIC, is also Tenants are seeking affordablealternatives away from core city Short-lets and studio apartments areincreasingly transforming the Lagosproperty market. The growingdemand for these options can beattributed to several factors. The riseof hybrid and remote work models Increase in short-term rentals,driven by rising domeic tourism,is disrupting traditional rental Furthermore, the influx of both localand international tourists into thecountry has significantly contributed Despite these efforts, the housinggap remains significant, increasingthe need for alternative solutions fortenants. Soaring rental demands from Public privatepartnership is drivinghousing delivery ofvarying scales in Retail MarketReview Amidst a difficult economic climateand reduced purchasing power,Lagos’ retail real estate market isfinding stability and targeted growthby reshaping itself around evolvingconsumer preferences. Shoppers areincreasingly prioritizing convenienceand proximity, fueling demand forsmaller, hyper-local shoppingdestinations rather than largeregional malls. The shift has opened acrucial opportunity. Agile local players Key Insights Lagos retail seor is shifting tohyper-local ores as consumersprioritize convenience amid Small-format ores demonrateresilience by thriving in a difficulteconomic environment through Local retailers like Bokku! Martare leading growth with rapidexpansion, outpacing internation-al brands. Office MarketReview The office market is showingresilience after a few challengingyears. Occupancy rates in Grade Aproperties have climbed from 65% to73%, showing a significant increasein the absorption of these premium establishment of the United StatesEmbassy's diplomatic facility in the city. square metre per month. This clearlyindicates a tenant-led market, wherelandlords favour higher occupancy over Key Insights Office activity has also picked up in keyhubs. For example, Eko-Atlantic City isexperiencing a significant surge incommercial activity, driven by its moderninfrastructure. This includes excellentroad networks, top-notch Improved occupancy in Lagos'Grade A offices demonratesthe market's resilience, driven by On the other hand, a continuing trendin the broader office market iswitnessing landlords adoptinginnovative strategies to address the Eko Atlantic has recently seen asurge in commercial office