央行和媒体对央行数字货币的看法：国际视角

BIS Working PapersNo 1279 Centralbank and mediasentiment on central bankdigital currency: an international perspectiveby Boris Hofmann, Xiaorui Tang and Feng Zhu Monetary and Economic Department July 2025 JEL classification: E58, G12, G18 Keywords: central bank digital currency (CBDC), centralbank communication, media sentiment, large languagemodel (LLM), financial market BISWorking Papers are written by members of the Monetary and EconomicDepartment of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by othereconomists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topicalinterest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of theirauthors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). ©Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may bereproduced or translated provided the source is stated. Central Bank and Media Sentiment on Central Bank Digital Currency:An International Perspective1 Boris Hofmann2 Bank for International Settlements Basel, Switzerland Xiaorui Tang3 Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR Feng Zhu4 CICC Global Institute, Hong Kong SAR This version: 8 July 2025 Abstract: This paper examines the sentiments of central banks and the media regarding central bankdigital currencies across 15 major global economies. Leveraging large language models, wedevelop jurisdiction-level central bank digital currency sentiment indices derived from centralbank publications and news articles on a daily basis. Our findings reveal significant divergencesbetween central bank and media sentiments, with notable variations over time and acrossjurisdictions. Analyzing the interplay between these sentiments, we observe that central banksentiment tends to exert a stronger influence on media sentiment than the reverse. Additionally,weidentify substantial cross-border sentiment spillovers,where sentiment in leadingeconomiesshapes sentiment in other regions.Through an event study approach,wedemonstrate that cryptocurrency and equity markets primarily respond to shifts in central banksentiments. Specifically, more positive central bank sentiments on central bank digital currencyareassociated with negative impacts on cryptocurrency market returns and the stockperformance of banking and payment-related firms. Keywords:Central bank digital currency (CBDC); central bank communication; mediasentiment; large language model (LLM); financial market. JEL Codes:E58, G12, G18. 1.Introduction Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the digital representation of central bank money, hasemerged as a pivotal focus for central banks in recent years, driven by rapid digital innovationwithin financial systems (BIS, 2021, 2022, 2023). Numerous central banks are activelyexploring CBDCs, with some advancing to more developed stages of their implementation.1This growing interest is evident in the increasing volume of central bank publications andmedia coverage on the subject (Figure 1). [Insert Figure 1 here] Despite its importance, the interplay between central bank and media sentiments on theissue remains underexplored albeit media commonly plays a key role in shaping publicperceptions (e.g., Entman, 1989).2This paper aims to fill this gap by studying central bank andmedia sentiments on CBDC across a group of 15 economies, applying large language modelsto central bank and media publications. Additionally, we use topic modeling to uncoverdominant themes in their communications, such as financial inclusion and financial stability.Our analysis focuses on five key questions: (1) Do central bank and media sentiments andtopics align or differ? (2) Who plays a leading role in shaping views—central banks or themedia? (3) Are there global spillovers in sentiments across jurisdictions? (4) Do central bankand media sentiments predict the progress of CBDC projects? (5) How do these sentimentsinfluence financial markets? Our key findings are as follows. First, there are notable divergences in sentiment and focusbetween central banks and the media. While media generally express more positive views andemphasize technological and crypto-related aspects, central banks focus more on paymentsystem implications. Second, central bank and media sentiments influence each other, withcentral bank sentiment having a stronger effect on future media sentiment than the reverse.Third, the sentiments of leading central banks—such as the Federal Reserve, European CentralBank (ECB), and People’s Bank of China (PBoC)—exert significant spillover effects on the sentiments of other central banks and media globally. Fourth, a central bank’s sentiment servesas a strong predictor of its near-term progress on CBDC projects. Finally, positive central banksentiment has a negative impact on cryptocurrency returns and the stock prices of banking andpayment-related firm