中国：政策制定者推出临时性贴息以刺激消费，又一项碎片化的宽松举措

Bottom line: Andrew Tilton+852-2978-1802|andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chinese policymakers launched two temporary interest subsidy programs forhousehold consumer loans and loans to targeted services businesses. Householdsand services business entities will receive a fiscal subsidy of 1pp for their interestpayments of eligible loans. We estimate these two programs will likely require up toRMB80bn fiscal funding for the subsequent 12 months, which should have alreadybeen incorporated in the 2025 budget and therefore does not increase the totalamount of easing we assume in our forecast. We view our fiscal cost estimate as anupper limit, as only 20+ national financial institutions are authorized for interestsubsidy settlement. The launch of these subsidy programs points to increased policypriorities on boosting consumption and the services sector. We maintain our viewthat significant demand-side stimulus is unlikely in the near term. Hui Shan+852-2978-6634|hui.shan@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang+852-3966-4004|lisheng.wang@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen+852-2978-2418|xinquan.chen@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang+852-2978-7283|yuting.y.yang@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song+852-2978-0106|chelsea.song@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Main points: 1. What happened?On 12 August, Ministry of Finance (MOF), together with severalother ministries, launched two programs to provide interest subsidies for householdconsumer loans and loans to targeted services businesses (e.g., restaurant, tourism,entertainment, childcare and elderly care), respectively, in an effort to boostconsumption and growth. Early this morning (13 August), senior officials from relatedministries including MOF helda press conferenceto elaborate more on theimplementation details. We summarize key details of the latest interest subsidyprogram: On theinterest subsidy program for household consumer loans, policymakersnannounced that households who take consumer loans for consumption from 23national financial institutions during 1 September 2025 - 31 August 2026 canreceive a fiscal subsidy of 1 percentage point (pp) for their interest payments,subject to some restrictions. Credit card loans are not eligible for the subsidy.Qualified loan-backed consumption activities include single consumptiontransactions below RMB50,000, and single consumption transactions ofRMB50,000 and above in key areas such as passenger cars, elderly care andchildcare, education and training, tourism, home furnishing and decoration,electronic products, health and medical care, among others. For singleconsumption transactions above RMB50,000, only the proportion of RMB50,000will be eligible for interest subsidy. On theinterest subsidy program for loans to targeted services businesses,n policymakers announced that businesses in eight services sectors (i.e., restaurantand hotel, healthcare, elderly care, childcare, housekeeping, entertainment, tourismand sports) who take loans for improving services capacity and quality from 21national banks during 16 March - 31 December 2025 can receive a fiscal subsidy of1pp for the interest payments, subject to some restrictions. The subsidy periodwould not exceed one year, based on the current plan. The maximum amount ofloans eligible for such subsidy is RMB1mn for each business entity. Policymakers mentioned that they will review the effectiveness of these interestnsubsidy programs after the expiry, and consider whether to extend theimplementation period, qualified industry coverage and/or coverage of banks forsubsidy settlements. For both programs, the central and local governments willprovide 90% and 10% of the subsidy funding, respectively, similar to theconsumergoods trade-in programandnationwide childbirth subsidies. These programs echo top leadership’s instructions and previous policy communications.In theState Council meeting on 31 July, Premier Li pledged to provide interest subsidesfor consumer loans and loans to services businesses. In China’sSpecial Initiatives toBoost Consumption(“提振消费专项行动方案”) unveiled around theMarch “TwoSessions”this year, policymakers vowed to provide interest subsidies to supportconsumption and people’s livelihood. 2. Gauging the fiscal costs and incremental growth impact.We estimate these twointerest subsidy programs will likely require up to RMB80bn fiscal funding for thesubsequent 12 months, with RMB70bn for household consumer loans and up toRMB10bn for loans to targeted services businesses, based on the current plan. Weview our fiscal cost estimate as an upper limit, as only 20+ national financial institutionsare authorized for interest subsidy settlement. According to thePBOC’s estimates, the outstanding amount of consumer loansn(excluding mortgage loans) was RMB21.2tn as of end-June. Assuming consumerloans have a maturity of 3 years, annual gross issuance is around RMB7tn. Interestsubsidies (of 1pp) for household co