中国互联网导航：顶级AI应用追踪：AI模型升级、ARR趋势以及芯片供应关注；7月应用参与度良好

Ronald Keung, CFA+852-2978-0856|ronald.keung@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lincoln Kong, CFA+852-2978-6603|lincoln.kong@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. China’s top AI models/applications maintained steady progress/trends in July withkey investor focus around1) Evolving dynamics of Nvidia’s H20 chip supply:withfurther progress on the US-side on potential resumption of chip sales to China(news), while Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) had recent conversationswith Nvidia (news). Depending on both foreign and domestic chip supplies, we areforecasting China cloud service providers’ (CSP) capex to pick-up from 3Q25 (GSeCSP aggregate capex to increase 42% qoq in 3Q25E, from a likely 2Q25E low) thatcould facilitate continued AI cloud revenue growth ramp-up.2) Continuedfoundation model launches, with narrowing performance gaps:performancegap between US SOTA (state-of-the-art) models and Chinese models remains withOpenAI’s recent GPT-5 launch, but we note the gap continues to narrow givensmaller incremental ‘breakthroughs’ in recent new models (albeit with fewerhallucinations, better coding) and with new releases from China Internetplatforms/AI start-ups. These include Zhipu’s open-sourced model GLM-4.5 (July 28)while Alibaba’s Qwen continues to rank at one of highest amongst global andChinese models, as per Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (seeExhibit 14).3)Multi-modal a key focus, with ARR trends (Annual Recurring Revenue) being afocus,on the back of Google’s new AI world modelGenie 3that allows for real-timeinteraction/fully simulated world and its earlier VEO3 launch, with potentialimplications to gaming and video generation competitive landscape in themedium-term. Monthly ARR trends for popular China AI video generation modelscontinue to be a focus (incl. Kuaishou’s Kling and Bytedance’s Seedance etc.), where80% of China AI ARR is currently generated from overseas (but in aggregate takingonly a 5% revenue share amongst total global AI applications), with key usecases/applications around video generation and image editing (seeExhibit 10).4)Sequentially weaker To-C AI engagement amongst chatbots in July, likely onincreased integration of AI-native functions within super-apps:while totaltimespent of China AI chatbot apps dipped 6% MoM in July (DeepSeek/Doubaodown 10%/13% MoM), we note further integration of chatbot/assistant typeAI-functions directly into super-apps (e.g. Alibaba’s launch of AI-native map Timothy Zhao+852-2978-2673|timothy.zhao@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Steve Qiu+852-2978-2672|steve.qiu@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Eunice Liu+852-2978-7472|eunice.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Luqing Zhou+852-3465-4207|luqing.zhou@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Leon Wang+852-2978-1414|leon.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Damian Xie+852-2978-1398|damian.xie@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg ACcertification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go towww.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as researchanalysts with FINRA in the U.S. applications Amap 2025, while AI search in Douyin has over 210mn MAU as perQuestMobile) which are providing more seamless user experience.5) Accelerating To-BAI adoption by Chinese enterprises:we see increasing token usage of +404%/+284%yoy for both AI-native apps and in-app AIs as per QuestMobile (seeExhibit 6), while66% of top 30 AI apps are developed by top 4 internet companies, Alibaba, Baidu,ByteDance, and Tencent. Meanwhile, overall top 400 mobile apps also maintained the prior month’s momentumwith total time spent up +6% yoy in July 2025 (vs. +7% in Jun 2025), with healthyWeixintime spent growth (+6% yoy) and continued strongDouyinapp engagementperformance (main app +19% yoy/Lite +22% yoy), solideCommercetime spent +14%yoy, whilegames‘ time spent increased by +3% yoy in Jul, according to QuestMobiledata. Specifically by vertical, we note: (-) AI engagement,where domestic AIGC application engagement decreased byn-6% mom mainly driven by decline in Doubao (-13% mom) and DeepSeek (-10%mom). (+) eCommerce engagement growth accelerated to +14% yoy in Jul.Amongstnthe top eCommerce platforms, JD and Taobao’s timespent maintained stronggrowth of +76%/+11% yoy, potentially benefiting from their food delivery/InstantCommerce initiatives that drives high-frequency user traffics. PDD’s timespentfurther normalized to +5% yoy. Meanwhile, the merchant app DAU share %, areflection of merchant onboarding & retention trends among platforms, remainedbroadly steady with BABA/PDD/Douyin taking 36%/23%/20% share, respective