比利时2025年上半年工业报告

H12025 Fresh data and insights on semi-industrial andlogistics property at the crossroads of Europe knightfrank.be/research TheBelgianIndustrialMarket H1 2025 Occupieractivity Investment volumes justify the hype. Semi-industrial Activity in the semi-industrial segment has slightly decreased during H1 2025; on a quarterly basis, the trend is alsomarginally negative. Total take-up over the first six months of the year amounted to 383,000 sq m, and close to 380lettings and occupier acquisitions. Investment activity surged to dizzying heights in the first half of the year,underscoring international demand in ausuallysolid Belgian market. The broader context behind the decrease in activity includesexternal disruptions, notably triggered by theimplementation and subsequent suspension of US tariffs, played a leading role in shaping recent trade dynamics, asBelgium’s economy is highly predicated on international trade. The latest forecasts from the National Bank of Belgiumpredict GDP growth of around 1% per annum between2025 and 2027. This moderate growth is explained bythe uncertain international environment andeconomic policy adjustments, although domesticdemand remains relatively stable. Furthermore, dwindling supply for large developmentsnegatively impacts the overall size of deals. Indeed,thenumber of deals recorded so far in 2025 is superior to eachof the past four yearsover the same six-month perioddespite the lower volume of take-up. An overwhelmingmajority of the projects in the pipeline aspire to cater tooccupiers searching for warehouses in the 100-400 sq mbracket. Inflation is expected to fall below 2% in 2026, beforerising temporarily in 2027 due to the introduction ofthe ETS2 system, which will affect fuel prices amongstother things. This reflects a return to a degree of pricestability in the short term, with upward pressureexpected later. Indeed,only one deal of more than 10,000 sq m took place,and approximately a dozen over the 5,000 sq m mark. In the future, landlords and developers will keep a keen eyeon impacts of the new Merz government in Germany (a keytrade andeconomic partner) and the expected increase inBelgian defense spending. The unemployment rate should remain low, at around6%,thanks tothe creation of 100,000 jobs over theperiod. However, the Belgian public deficit continuesto widen, reaching 5.6% of GDP by 2027, while publicdebt would exceed 112% of GDP, increasing concernsabout fiscal sustainability. The median semi-industrial transaction size in H1 was 500sq m. Added to this is growing geopolitical uncertainty: thedate of 9 July had been seen as a potential turningpoint in trade relations between the United States andthe European Union. The European Union and theUnited States have since agreed a new trade deal,avoiding the threatened 30% US tariffs. Instead, a 15%cap will apply to most EU exports from 1 September. Inreturn, the EU will drop tariffs on US industrial goodsand give better access to American farm products.Brussels is still preparing fallback measures in case thedeal breaks down. Logistics The logistics occupier market received a welcome boostfrom a strong take-up volume and an increased deal flowthe tail-end of the first semester. Indeed, activity waslethargic during the first five months of theyearbeforepicking up in June with a dozen larger transactions. It bears repeating that the strong volume which ended lastyear was supported by a market-defining 200,000 sq mtransaction for the ages involving Skechers in December.The first semester of 2025 registers 21 deals, against 16 in H22024, including a small handful over the 20,000 sq m mark(see table below). A negative outcome will further weigh on Belgianexports and accentuate economic tensions. Source: National Bank of Belgium We should not, therefore, read too much into the 32%decrease of take-up during H1 2025 during which take-up of292,500 sq m was recorded. concerned. Having been relegated to second spot at the end of 2024, 3PL occupiers return to the top of the mostdynamic occupiers ranking, with 39% of all take-up: 112,000 sq m during H1 2025. Consumer goods companies dropto second with a strong turnout: 26% of take-up, or 77,000 sq m. Meanwhile, Grade A deals amounted to nearly 75% of the total newly occupied space in H1. Grade Bs were alsodynamic, with 18% of take-up, receiving a boost from Schweppes Suntory’s 16,000 sq m letting in Nivelles. Rents Semi-industrial Flanders prime rents have continued to increase thisyear and are now at €80/sq m/year in both GreaterBrussels and Flanders. Prime semi-industrial assetsrarely remain vacant, regardless of location. The steadyrise in competition among occupiers as well as theincreased expenses involved in occupying a propertysince 2022 havecontributed to the gradual increase inrental values across this segment. The average weighted rent for Belgium is €53/sq m/yearand has showed very little volatility over the past 18months. Logistics Logisti