人工智能药物开发，CDMO商业产品即将迎来爆发

RECOMMENDATION(BUY) AI-PoweredDrugDevelopment,CDMOCommercialProductsSetforImminentBoom September3,2025 BasedontheInterimReport,wemaintaintheBUYratingwiththetargetpriceof4.0HKD.Ourviewpointsareasfollows: HangSengIndex25,343.43HangSengCompositeIndex3,890.56HangSengHealthcareIndex4,615.09 CommentsonOperations TargetPrice(HKD)4.0Upside/Downside41.3%MarketConsensus(HKD)3.04 In2025H1,thecompanyreportedrevenueofCNY831.9million(down15.3%YoY),whileadjustednetprofitreachedCNY183.5million(up9.1%YoY).Intermsofrevenue,thedeclinewasprimarilyduetoreducedincomefromtheCDMOarm.Duringthisperiod,thecompanyfocusedonpreparingforthelaunchofnewcommercialprojectsinitsCDMOarmandhas alreadyinitiated PPQ(ProcessPerformanceQualification)production.Theseprojectsareexpectedtoachievecommerciallaunchin2026and2027,providingstrongsupportfortherapidgrowthoftheCDMOarminthefuture.Meanwhile,theCROarmresumedgrowth.In terms of profits,the Company’s gross profit margin significantlyimprovedto40.8%.Specifically,thegrossmarginoftheCROarmslightlyincreasedto45.4%,whilethatoftheCDMOsegmentrosesubstantiallyto35.9%.Thenetmarginalsosawa significant year-on-year improvement to 17.9%.Overall,the company showedstableoperationsandstrongpotentialforfuturegrowth. Close2.8352-weekHigh/Low2.89/0.41MarketCap(HKDbn)60.23Free-floatMarketCap(HKDbn)60.23 CROArmResumedGrowth,withAI-PoweredProjectsContributing10%ofRevenue:BenefitingfromtherecoveryinglobalbiotechinvestmentandthebuoyantBDtransactionlandscapeforinnovativedrugsdomestically,thecompany'sCROrevenuehasresumedgrowth.ThecumulativenumberofCROclientsincreasedto1,669,withoverseasrevenueaccountingfor85.0%(up4.9%YoY)anddomesticrevenuerepresenting15.0%(up46.6%YoY).Newmolecularmodalitiescontributed15.0%ofCROrevenue,growing19.0%YoY,emergingasanewdriverforCROgrowth.By2025H1,AIDDhascumulativelyparticipatedin175projects,withthenumberofclientsadoptingCADD/AIDDreaching67.RevenuefromAI-empoweredprojectsaccountedfornearly10%ofCROrevenue.Thecompanyhasestablishednotablecollaborationsforend-to-endAI-drivendiscoverysolutionsinspecificnichesand entered strategic partnerships with domestic pharmaceutical companies.Regardingtechnological platform development,AI capabilities now cover the entireworkflowofFICdrugdiscovery.Throughend-to-endintegration,thesecapabilitiesareprogressivelytransformingtheparadigmofdrugdiscovery. Source：Wind,uSMART. PromisingCDMOCommercializedProjectswithSignificantlyEnhancedProfitability:Thecompany'sCDMOarmgeneratedrevenueofCNY409.0millionin2025H1(down31.4%YoY).The decline was primarily attributed to the following factors:TemporaryimpactongenericdrugrevenueduetofacilityupgradesaimedatmeetingFDAauditrequirementsfornewcommercializedprojects;VolatilityinthesupplychaincausedbygeopoliticalfactorsinSoutheastAsiaandtheIndia-Pakistanregion;NewcommercializedCDMOprojectsarescheduledtodeliveryandwillgeneraterevenuein2025H2.Intermsofproductioncapabilities,thecompanyhassteadilyexpandeditsproductioncapabilities,whicharesufficienttosupporttheproductionneedsofnewcommercializedproductsoverthenexttwoyears.Additionally,thecompanyrestructureditsCMCoperationsin2025H1,sharpeningits focusonsynthesis andanalysis services.Efforts tostrengthenBDforoverseasclients,coupled with cost reduction,efficiency improvements,and customerportfoliooptimization,havedrivenanotableincreaseinprofitability RelevantResearch DeeplyEngagedinAI-drivendrugR&DRevolution，Viva Starts a New Era ofGlobalizedCRDMO Business,April 23,2025. YuCaiBTG755Mail:jack.cai@usmart.hk RiskDisclosure:IntensifyingcompetitioninCRDMO;SlowerdevelopmentsinAI;Delaysincommercializedprojects;RisksassociatedwithEFS;Valuationrecoveryfallingshort. 1.CROSegmentResumedGrowthwithRapidAdvancementsinAI-DrivenDrugDiscovery VivaBiotechHoldingsisagloballyleadingstructure-baseddrugdiscovery(SBDD)serviceprovider,dedicated to offering comprehensive one-stop solutions forinnovativedrug enterprises worldwide,spanning from early-stage SBDD tocommercializeddrugproduction.Thecompany'soperationsaredividedintothreesegments:CRO,CDMO,andVBI.In2025H1,theCROarmdeliveredoutstandingperformance,achieving revenueof CNY422.8million(up 9.6%YoY),markingareturntogrowth.GrossprofitreachedCNY194.6million(up13.4%YoY),withagrossmarginof45.4%,reflectingimprovementoverpreviousyears.Throughaseriesofeffectivemeasurestoenhanceoperationalefficiency,thecompanyhasmaintainedhighprofitabilityinitsCRObusiness.Asofnow,VivaBiotechHoldingsemploys1,098R&DpersonnelinitsCROsegment,withstaffinglevelsremainingstable. Atthesametime,thenumberofclientsinthecompany'sCRObusinesshasgrownto1,669(up 13.9%YoY),including all top ten global pharmaceutical companies.Revenuefromthetoptenclientsaccountedfor25.9%ofCROrevenue,reflectingahealthyclientconcentrationlevel.Overseasrevenuerepresented85.0%ofrevenue(up4.9%YoY),whiledomesticrevenueaccountedfor15.0%ofrevenue(up46.6%YoY).ThestronggrowthindomesticrevenuewasdrivenbyrobustBDtransactionactivitiesinChina'sinnovativedrugsector.Since2025,thecompany'sservicefeestructurehasshiftedtoprimari