汽车行业展望：关税已至，何去何从？

Tariffs are here: What now? Mike WallExecutive Director, Automotive Analysis+1 248 728 8400 Direct+1 616 446 6885 MobileMike.Wall@spglobal.com April 2025 S&P Global Mobility covers the entire vehicle lifecycle For customers across the automotive landscape–from manufacturers and suppliers to dealerships andservice shops–we share a complete perspective of the mobility industry. Sales Performance & Marketing Forecasting & Planning Vehicle in Use Deliver critical information to supportaftermarket services and vehicle recallswhere necessary Understand the historical market trendsto enable you to forecast the future andevaluate your investment opportunities Analyse actual market developments asthey happen and market to the rightaudience so you can remain competitive Vehicle DemandVehicle ProductionTechnologySustainable mobility Parts Demand & FitmentOwner NotificationVehicle Identification Marketing ActivationSales OptimizationIndustry Performance A New Trade Structure Emerges Known auto-focused tariff timeline •Understanding is reciprocal tariffsannounced on April 2nddo notstack with auto or steel tariffs– 25% autos and auto parts tariffdoes stack with steel andaluminum• A new tariff structure with Canadaand Mexico is a high priority forthe US administration• Various investments will beannounced, though long-termstructural changes are driven by astable trade structure• A new most-favored nation (MFN)for non-Canada/Mexico autosvehicles and parts is expected.Potential for a shift in portfoliosize, competitiveness and scaleeconomies consideration. Global Light Vehicle Sales ForecastApril 2025 base case Forecast downgrade on combined impacts of US auto tariffs & general reciprocal tariffs on all goodsOne of the biggest single-month changes we have ever made to global auto forecasts (only COVID and the GlobalFinancial Crisis were larger) Potential US Pricing Changes: Potential US$4,200 ATP Increase in 2025 • Reflects weighted average changes to averagetransaction prices on fully tariffed inventory for thewhole LV market and not just for imports. • Prices after adjustment as at the very end of eachyear (and not the average of the whole year) • Reduced price impact in 2026 due to ourassumption that the auto tariff on USMCA will dropfrom 25% to 12% in early 2026 In a Prolonged Trade War, Only the Detroit 3 Have the Excess Capacity to ReshoreReality is complex, but another demonstration of headwinds facing Japanese, German and Korean OEMs •Japanese OEMs have potential2.8 million units exposure– Combined excess capacity ofjust under 1.2 million units • Korean OEMs have anexposure of 1.1 million units– Excess capacity of just over300,000 units • German OEMs have anexposure of just under 1 millionunits– Excess capacity in the US ofjust over 200,000 units Global Light Vehicle Production OverviewTariff/trade dynamics set to disrupt the production profile for the foreseeable future… US: Light Vehicle Sales OutlookPent-up demand provides some support yet is proving vulnerable to second order impacts fromtariff threats and market conditions;Affordability shapes ongoing trajectory, recession risk adds downside exposure Key issues •US consumer outlook remains challenged withinflation, interest rates, vehicle pricing and confidenceas material concerns•Opportunities to find right customer based on vehicleage and scrappage•Launch activity is volatile; finding the optimal mix(segment, trim, etc.) will be critical•Vehicle development costs rising•Regulatory compliance•Consumer contenting•Market conditions are shifting, yet sales are stillrunning at below-trend levels•Elevated interest rates; rate cuts in focus•Affordability remains a significant challenge North America: Short-term Outlook Impacted by Tariff ActionsTariffs, choppy BEV transition and vehicle pricing are critical concerns;inventory strategy influences production cadence given tariff overhang, material US resourcing not likely until 2027 and beyond •Production prioritized near-term; USsourcing push not likely to yield results until2027+ • BEV transition beset by slower adoptionrates and uncertainty; translating toprogram delays, cancellations and weakerlaunch curves; creates opportunity for ICEin the out years • Inflation Reduction Act has strengthenedlocal supply chains, yet now presents riskwith Trump administration policies in focus • Mexico, mainland China’s wild card, isthreatening status quo, pressuringUSMCA; proposals on software furtherraise barrier to entry Thank You! Mike WallExecutive Director, Automotive Analysis+1 248 728 8400 Direct+1 616 446 6885 MobileMike.Wall@spglobal.com