生活OPAT表现优于；第二季度收益和净资产收益率回归健康趋势

Life OPAT outperformed; 2Q earnings and NAVreturned to a healthy trend CPIC’s2Q earningsstrengthened. Group/Life OPAT was up 7.1%/5% like-for-like(LFL)to RMB 19.9bn/15bn, suggesting a sequential uptick in 2Q25 vs. 5% YoYincrease of Group OPAT in 1Q25 (link). Net profit rebounded11%YoYin 1HtoRMB 27.9bn on a high base, translatinginto 36% YoY growth in 2Q25. Net assetvaluefell 3.3%in 1Hfrom year-start, with 2Q NAVupby 7% QoQ, thanks to lessvolatile interest rate movements. NBVjumped 32.3%mainly driven by the increasein bancassurance (+156%) partially offset by a drop in agency channel (-2.5%).Given a higher mix of bancassurance (38% mix, up 18pct YoY), NBV margin slightlyrose 0.4pct YoY to 15.0%in 1H. Participating FYRP surged morethan 13x YoYin1H25to RMB10.1bn (43% mix, up 40pct YoY),boding well for the insurer’ssuccessful transformation to floating-yield products in 1H25. Agency accounted for51%of total par FYRPand bancassurance contributed half of that (~25%)in 1H.We expect the par sales volumes to sustain good momentum in 2H25E, given anew round of PIR cutinSep narrowing thecap of the guaranteed rate of traditionalproducts (2.0%) and par products (1.75%) to 25bps, vs. historically 50bps. CPICP&CCoR improved 0.8pct YoY to 96.3%,with loss/expense ratio down0.1pct/0.7pct YoY. Given better-than-expected investments and UW structure,weraiseourFY25-27EEPSestimatestoRMB4.54/4.81/5.28(prev.RMB4.18/4.63/5.17), and upgrade our TP to HK$40.0 based on SOTP, whichimplies 0.6x FY25E P/EV. Maintain BUY. Target PriceHK$40.00(Previous TPHK$34.00)Up/Downside12.8%Current PriceHK$35.46 China Insurance Nika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Shareholding Structure NBV increase driven by bancassurance:1H25 NBV grew32.3% LFL to RMB9.5bn, with 2Q NBV up 23% YoY (CMBI est).Agency/bancassurance NBVwasRMB 5.7bn/RMB 3.6bn, down 2.5%/up 156%LFL, making up60%/38%mix.NBV margin slowed:In 1H25,NBVmargin edged up 0.4pct YoY to 15%, with agency/bancassuranceNBVM at 26.4%/12.4%,up 1.5pct/2.9pct LFL.Theeased growth in margin was due to ahighermix of bancassurance sales.Par FYRP outgrew:FYRPof par policiessurged over 13.8x YoY to RMB10.1bn in 1H25,making up42.5% of total FYRP (vs. FY24/1Q25:3%/18%). Agency/bancassurancepar FYRPaccounted for 51%/~25%atRMB 5.2bn/RMB 2.5bn.We expect the par sales volumes to further rise in 2H25E, given the start of thenew PIR cut in Sep, to narrow the cap ofguaranteed rate of traditionalproductsvs. parto 25bps (historically 50bps), which could help gain more traction to par.Life OPAT growth sustained:Life OPAT grew 5%LFL in 1H25, withthenew business CSM (NB CSM) rising 21% YoY, and Life CSM balance up 1.2% fromyear-start.Looking ahead, we think NB CSM and positive operating variancesare two key drivers for Life OPAT, which made up 75% of Group’s total in 1H25. Auditor: Ernst & Young Related reports: P&C CoR in-line.P&C CoRwasat 96.3% in 1H25, down 0.8pct YoY, withclaims/expense ratio down 0.1pct/0.7pct YoY to 69.5%/26.8%. Auto/non-auto CoRwas 95.3%/97.6%, down 1.8pct/up 0.4pct YoY. Non-auto CoR was dragged bythe impact of personal credit guarantee insurance; if excluding this part, non-autoCoR could drop 2.3pct YoY to 94.8% in 1H25. UWP grew 63% YoY, with healthinsurance first turnedaprofit. Premium growth eased to 0.9% YoY in 1H25. 1.CPIC (2601 HK)–Participating salesnoticeablyincreased;MTMlossesdragged a profit miss in 1Q25, Apr 29,2025 2.CPIC (2601 HK)–Life OPAT beat,drivingDPS to rise faster than GroupOPAT, Apr 1,2025 TPL securities trading gainedaboost; stockallocation remainsintact.Totalinvestmentassets rose 6.5% HoH to RMB 3.8tn, with stock allocation remainedlargely intact at a 9.7% mix (FY24: 9.3%). Total/net investment yield (TII/NII) slid0.4pct/0.1pct YoY to 2.3%/1.7%, and comprehensive investment yield (CII) fell0.6pct YoY to 2.4% in 1H25, dragged bylowerfair value gains from OCI debtinstruments due to a more flattish yield curvevs.1H24. Net investment incomesoared 2.1x YoY to RMB 21.7bn by gains from TPL securities trading. 3.CPIC (2601 HK)–3Q NBV growthaccelerated; expect par sales to outgrow,Nov 1, 2024 4.CPIC (2601 HK)–Steam ahead withdoubled 2Q net profit and strong NBVuptrend; revise up TP, Sep 5, 2024 Valuation:The stock is trading at 0.51xFY25EP/EV,withforward 3yr averageROE at 15%.We revise up our FY25-27E EPS estimates to RMB4.54/4.81/5.28(prev. RMB4.18/4.63/5.17,Table) to reflect improving UW profitability.Althoughmgmt.mentionedin call that the Group aims to reach a positive net profitgrowth in FY25E, we remain prudent on full-yearbottom-linegrowthgiven 5.CPIC(2601 HK)–NBV growthaccelerated; NP turned positive YoY, May6, 2024 Key risks:1) par sales volumes fall short ofourexpectations; 2) NBV marginsignificantlyretreats due to product and channel mix changes;3)3Q25Ecatastrophic claims surged beyondourexpectations; 4) intensified interest ratefluctuations; and 5) heightenedequitymarket volatilities; etc. Valuation Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst