评估最大就业率

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online) Assessing Maximum Employment Christopher Foote, Shigeru Fujita, Amanda Michaud, Joshua Montes 2025-067 NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Assessing Maximum Employment Christopher Foote, Shigeru Fujita, Amanda Michaud, Joshua Montes The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as backgroundfor its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, andcommunications. Abstract:We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor marketrelative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of thecyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with otherindicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can providecomplementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market. A joint analysis of jobvacancies and unemployment in a Beveridge curve diagram is helpful when structural shocksaffect the labor market and when the labor market is very tight, while the employment-to-population ratio is useful late in expansions, when increases in employment tend to arise fromhigher labor force participation. Additional indicators—including wage growth and workerflows—can complement the core indicators we discuss. We draw on lessons from the GlobalFinancial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to evaluate the effectiveness of various indicators. JEL Classification:E24, E32, J23. Keywords:Maximum employment, unemployment, job vacancies, labor force participation,wages, business cycle. 1. Introduction and overview The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is to promote maximum employment and pricestability. As described in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) current Statement onLonger-run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, maximum employment is a broad-based andinclusive goal that is not directly measurable and evolves over time, and the uncertain and time-varying nature of the concept implies that policymakers cannot rely on a single indicator or afixed threshold to assess its level. The economic environment leading up to the pandemic suggested that the level ofmaximum employment could be higher than previously believed and, therefore, a robust labormarket could be sustained for an extended period without fueling inflation. In contrast, theCOVID-19 pandemic highlighted how a large exogenous shock can significantly reducepotential labor supply and the ability of firms and workers to form employment relationships,thus quickly changing the level of maximum employment. We put forward a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor marketrelative to maximum employment, highlighting the circumstances under which each indicator isparticularly useful as well as practical challenges faced by each. Our analysis draws on lessonsfrom the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic to evaluate theeffectiveness of these indicators. We reach the following conclusions: •The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labormarket. It is time-tested and highly correlated with other indicators, and it haspractical measurement advantages. Still, other indicators can provide complementaryevidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market.•Job vacancies and the Beveridge curve can help distinguish movements in theunemployment rate driven by changes in aggregate demand from movements drivenby changes in the structure of the labor market. Moreover, the Beveridge curve isuseful for identifying times when labor market tightness manifests in vacancies withlittle movement in the unemployment rate.•The employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) and the labor force participation rate(LFPR) complement the unemployment rate by giving a more complete sense of thelabor market’s proximity to maximum employment. The EPOP and LFPR areparticularly useful indicators in mature expansions when the unemployment rate islow, but the economy may still not be at maximum employment because the LFPR iscyclically low, especially for some socioeconomic groups. Additionally, sharpmovements in the LFPR can help identify structural shocks to labor supply and, thus,changes in the level of maximum employment. Because of their conceptual relationship to maximum employment and their widespreadavailability and recognition, we think the indicators we highlight should guide discuss