释放增长？欧盟投资计划和公司业绩

Unlocking Growth? EU investmentprogrammes and firm performance Alessandro De Sanctis, Daniel Kapp,Francesca Vinci, Robert Wojciechowski Disclaimer:Thispaper should not be reported as representing theviews of the European Central Bank(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Abstract This study evaluates the effectiveness of EU Cohesion Policy as an investment programme,employing a novel dataset that links firm-level data from Orbis with project-level informationfrom the Kohesio database.It focuses on two key questions:(1) Which firms receive EUfunding?(2) How does receiving EU funding affect firm performance?By applying a logitmodel and a local projection difference-in-differences approach, we provide new insights into theallocation mechanisms of EU Cohesion Policy funds and their firm-level impact. Our findingsshow that funding tends to be allocated to firms that already perform relatively well, andthat firms receiving EU funding experience a persistent productivity increase of approximately3% after 4 years, with smaller and more financially constrained firms experiencing relativelygreater improvements.Moreover, funding targeting “SME investment” tends to enhance firmperformance disproportionately more than other categories, whereas projects directed the “greentransition” appear comparatively less beneficial. Keywords:European Structural and Investment Funds, Productivity, Corporate Investment,Fiscal Policy, Place-based Policy. JEL classification: E22, D24, H54, O38, O52 Non-technical summary Productivity is a key driver of long-term economic growth and living standards. In recent decades,however, Europe has experienced a marked and persistent slowdown in productivity growth, raisingconcerns among policymakers and bringing the topic to the centre of the policy debate. Againstthis backdrop, EU Cohesion Policy, delivered primarily through the European Structural andInvestment Funds (ESIF), represent one of the EU’s main instruments for promoting economicdevelopment, productivity, and regional convergence. This paper evaluates the impact of the 2014–2020 ESIF on firm-level outcomes across the EU.Using a novel dataset that links firm-level information from the Orbis database with project-leveldata from the European Commission’s Kohesio dataset, the study examines (1) which firms receiveEU funding and (2) how receiving funding affects their investment and productivity. The analysis shows that EU funding is typically directed toward relatively well-performingfirms, that are less capital-intensive and face some degree of financial constraints. Firms receivingfunding increase their capital by around 15% within one year and experience a gradual productivitygrowth, reaching approximately 3% after four years. These effects are more pronounced for smalland medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and for firms facing financing constraint, suggesting that EUfunding helps to unlock investment by easing access to capital. Moreover, the study finds that not all categories of funding yield the same outcomes. Projectsaimed at supporting “SME investment” have stronger positive effects on capital accumulation andproductivity growth, while projects targeting green transition objectives show more limited gains. The findings highlight the important role of EU programmes in enhancing firm-level invest-ment and productivity. They also suggest that targeted allocation—especially towards SMEs andfinancially constrained firms—can improve the policy’s effectiveness. These insights are especiallyrelevant as the EU continues to channel investments during the ongoing Cohesion Policy program-ming period—and the Recovery and Resilience Facility—, while also preparing to revamp the EUbudget for the 2028–2034 cycle. 1Introduction Productivity is a fundamental driver of long-term economic growth and improvements in livingstandards.1While productivity performance has long been a priority for policymakers, it has re-cently taken centre stage in the EU policy debate amid the pronounced and persistent slowdownobserved in Europe over the past three decades (Draghi, 2024). In this context, assessing the effec-tiveness of existing policy instruments aimed at fostering investment and productivity is essential,not only to evaluate their impact, but also to inform future policy design by identifying what works,for whom, and under what conditions. An example of such instruments is the EU Cohesion Policy.While the EU’s fiscal capacityremains limited, the Cohesion Policy—operationalized through the European Structural and In-vestment Funds (ESIF)—stands as one of the Union’s most significant instruments for promotingeconomic development. Over the past 25 years, the EU has invested approximately one trillion eu-ros through these funds, with the objective of reducing regional disparities and promoting economicand social cohesion. For the current programming period (2021-2027), the EU has alloc