冈比亚经济更新，2025年春季：冈比亚公共债务阿喀琉斯之踵？（英）2025

© 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbankgroup.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions.The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarilyreflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, or thegovernments they represent. The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracyof the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and otherinformation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the partof The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of the World Bank Group, all of which are specificallyreserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encouragesdissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, fornon-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any querieson rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433,USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the followingdisclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by the WorldBank Group and should not be considered an official World Bank Group translation.The World Bank Group shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the followingdisclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work bythe World Bank Group. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the soleresponsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by theWorld Bank Group. Third-party content—The World Bank Group does not necessarily own each componentof the content contained within the work. The World Bank Group therefore does notwarrant that the use of any third-party owned individual component or part containedin the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claimsresulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a componentof the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for thatreuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components caninclude, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. Attributions—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. The GambiaEconomic Update: The Gambia Public Debt: and Achille’s heel?” © World Bank.” Allrights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to Office of thePublisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax202-522-2422; tel: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. Table of Contents Abbreviations and AcronymsivAcknowledgementsvExecutiveSummaryvi 1.1.Recent economic developments2Global growth has stabilized while Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy has expanded, supported by easinginflation and monetary easing2Economic activity has increased in The Gambia supported by aggregate demand and a slowdownininflation2External sector vulnerabilities persisted and the current account deficit worsened5The CBG’s monetary policy stance remained tight to address persistent inflationary pressures.7The fiscal deficit has narrowed despite persistent fiscal vulnerabilities and high public debt11Extreme poverty declined in 2024, but major obstacles to rapid poverty reduction remain121.2.Outlook, risks and challenges14The outlook is broadly positive with robust growth underpinned by a rebound across all sectors14Rising global and domestic risks cloud to the outlook18 Chapter2: The Gambia’s Public Debt: An Achilles Heel?212.1.Public debt has soared over the last decade, reversing the gains achieved through the HIPC initiative in2007, with most current debt linked to foreign borrowing222.2.Reasons for financing The Gambia’s economy through debt252.3.Impact of public debt on economic growth in The Gambia332.3.1.Literature review: Public debt has both positive and negative effects on growth332.3.2.Public debt has a non-linear impact on economic growth in The Gambia, with debt ratiosexceeding optimal thresholds342.4.Channels through which public debt impacts the Gambian economy402.4.1.Public debt impacts economic growth through various transmission channels402.4.2.Public and private investment as well as interest rates are the primary transmission channelsthrough which public debt affects economic growth in The Gambia412.4.3.ARDL model432.5.Analyzing the impac