2025年8月澳大利亚首都展望

Capital markets are gaining confidence that valuations have reached acyclical low but a sharp rise in global uncertainty in Q2 weighed onlarge-scale transactions. ALISTAIR READSENIOR ECONOMIST, RESEARCH & CONSULTING Change in H1 volumes y/y Investment volume in Q2 Cross-border capital mostactive Total investment volumes in Q2 2025slowed to $8.2 billion as uncertaintyweighed on investor confidence. Total investment volumes in H1 2025were1% lower than H1 2024. Cross-border investors have been themost active, accounting for 42% oftotal acquisitions Q2 2025. National prime office yield Expected cash rate by mid2026 National prime industrialyield The weighted Australian prime officeyield remained stable–for the secondconsecutive quarter–at 6.7% in Q22025. Money markets are currently pricingina further 0.6% fall in the RBA cashrate from 3.60% to 3.0% by June 2026. The eastern seaboard Australian primeindustrial yield fell to 5.7% in Q2 2025driven by a tightening in Sydney andBrisbane yields. Investment volumes fell to $8.2 billion in Q2 2025 as asharp rise in global policy uncertainty weighed onsentiment and buyer’s willingness to commit to largetransactions. This took H1 2025 transaction volumes to$17.0 billion, down slightly from $17.2 billion in H1 2024. Despite reduced liquidity in Q2, a wide range of groupsremain eager to deploy capital in the near-term to takeadvantage of attractive pricing off the back of the recentdownturn, thereby maximising the prospects of long-termcapital growth. Investors are likely to have slowed transaction activityuntil the dust settles and uncertainty around trade policydissipates. This was particularly noticeable in the officesector where Q2 transaction volumes totalled a relativelylow $1.2 billion. However, over $1 billion of CBD offices arein due diligence and likely to transact in H2 2025. Australia is viewed as less susceptible to the immediateimpact of the trade war and as financial market concernsover the economic impact are allayed, we expect higherlevels of activity to resume in the second half of the year. This will be supported by improving local marketfundamentals across multiple sectors, as highconstruction costs weigh on new construction and driverental growth. In addition, the likelihood of furtherinterest rate cuts will see flow through to a moderation infunding costs and help to enable a gradual marketrecovery. Industrial assets saw the highest level of investmentactivity in Q2 ($2.9 billion) followed by retail assets ($2.0billion). Industrial sales were driven by Morgan Stanleyacquiring a 50% interest Frasers Prime Logistics Portfolio(c$300 million) andJD.com’sc$250 million purchase oftheWacolLogistics hub. Other significant sales in Q2includedGreystar’s $1.4 billion acquisition of GIC’sAustralian PBSA portfolio and Odakyu buying a 10% stakein Salesforce tower for circa $200 million. After an extended period of inactivity, US investorsreturned strongly in 2024. This momentum has continuedinto H1 2025, with US investors continuing to driveinvestment activity. Cross-border capital led purchasing activity with $2.6billion of transactions (42% of total activity) in Q2 2025,bringing the total H1 volume to $4.1 billion (30%).However, offshore investor demand was narrower thannormal in Q2, with substantial demand from US investors(54% of cross-border investment) but relatively subdueddemand from Singapore, Japan and Canada. Major Q2 transactions involving US capital includedGreystar’s stake in the $1.4 billion acquisition of GIC’sAustralian PBSA portfolio–Greystar’s largest deal inAustralia–and Morgan Stanley’s purchase of a 50% sharein the Frasers Prime Logistics Venture portfolio for $300million. Meanwhile, A-REITs continued to be net sellers of assetsin Q2, although to a lesser extent than in recent years. Toillustrate, REITs sold $3.4 billion of assets in H1 2025,significantly lower than the $6.7 billion of assets sold in H12024. For some time, REITs have been selectivelydivesting assets. As market conditions improve, we expectrenewed participation on the buy-side, and the strongrecovery in equity prices including for REITs will help tofacilitate this. Other significant cross-border transactions includedChineseJD.com’spurchase of theWalcolLogistics hub,and Japan-based Odakyu’s c$200 million acquisition of a10% share of the Salesforce tower. In our Horizons 2025 report last November, weforeshadowed that prime industrial yields would be thefirst to return to a cycle of yield compression. This is nowplaying out, with Sydney prime industrial yields falling by8 bps on average to 5.4% in Q2, the first decline since Q12022. This fall was driven by lower yields throughoutWestern Sydney. Meanwhile, Brisbane industrial yieldsalso continued to sharpen to 6.0% in Q2. In the office sector, sentiment is also improving although itcontinues to vary by location. Having returned to growth inQ1, CBD office values were stable in Q2, but suburban assetvalues d