淘金热

Gold-Binger Scores on the Doors: gold 30.3%, bitcoin 25.5%, stocks 12.6%, IG bonds 8.1%, HYbonds 7.6%, govt bonds 6.6%, cash 2.6%, commods 1.3%, US$-9.6%, oil -11.0% YTD. 08 August 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist:“Tariffs, taxes, Iran, Russia, China, that was April wall of worry to climb; nowwe’ve just got China to go…when Xi & Trump shaking hands on the Great Wall it’s thetop”. The Biggest Picture: best performing FX in’25…Russian ruble up 42% (Chart 3), beststock market…Poland up 54%, Ukraine bonds up 61% past 12 months (Chart 2), all runfurther on upcoming Russia/Ukraine/NATO peace; but best Q3 peace trades…longJapan,China, India, all oil importers, all next in line for lower tariffs/trade deals;relative peacelosers…defense/tech stocks & Middle East (Saudi stock market -10% YTD - Chart 4). The Price isRight:“America First = US$ last”; 2020s = end of Japan deflation, start ofEurope fiscal stimulus, start of China consumer rebalancing, all +ve global trends Trumpaccelerating; US$ in bear, international in vogue structural not cyclical; China = our faveplay…unloved, peak tariffs, consumer stimulus, record trade surplus (Charts 9 & 10). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: Mag7+AVGO+ORCL+PLTR = 80% of SPX return since Liberation Day;US stock concentration, etc. but reinforced by pro-monopoly American First policy + AIoncusp of US labor market disruption (graduate U-rate spike to 8.1% - was 4.0% inDec'23–Chart 5) so concentrated US stock return to continue until tech credit spreadswiden(Chart 7), signal AI cash burn threatening AI overbuild trade (was same storyH2’99, as was recession true spark for productivity spurt - Chart 6). Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Ukraine USD sovereign bond price More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investmentstrategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12.12863724 Timestamp: 08 August 2025 01:13AM EDT Weekly Flows: $106.7bn to cash (biggest since Jan’25–Chart 11–thought cash wasmeant to be piling into risk assets!), $28.5bn to bonds (biggest $22.2bn inflow to IG &HY bonds since Jun’20–Chart 12), $0.2bn from gold, $1.9bn from crypto (biggest sinceMar’25), $41.7bn from stocks (per EPFR this week’s stock outflow entirely driven byabnormal liquidation outflows from three UK-domiciled funds on Jul 31st). BofA Private Clients: $4.0tn AUM…63.5% stocks (historic range 39-66% since Jun'05),18.5% bonds (17-34%), 10.8% cash (10-21%); in ETFs past 4 weeks, private clientsbuying utilities, bank loan, MLPs, selling tech, healthcare, staples. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: falls to 6.1 from 6.3 on lower global stock index breadth,the abnormal equity outflow, hedge fund SPX hedges, offset by low FMS cash levels. BofA Global Fund Manager Survey: Aug FMS released on 12th; great contrariansurveys past 12 months…bearish Aug'24 FMS, bullish Dec'24 FMS, bullish Feb'25, bearishApr’25 FMS…metrics that signal Aug’25 FMS an extreme bullish survey (to sell)… 1.Investor probability of an economic hard landing falls to 5% or below (Chart 8), 2.Investor global equity allocation rises from net 4% OW to >25% OW, 3.Investors cash levels drop further from 3.9% (sell signal level triggered in July FMS–note cash 3.7% or lower has occurred 20 times since 2002, on every occasionstocks down, Treasuries outperform 1-3 months–Table 1). August Zeitgeist: only thing that matters for risk assets are rates & EPS…everythingelse is n