美国经济前景通胀趋势保持不变-11715833

Economics US Economic Perspectives Trend inflation on hold Amy YangEconomist+1-212-454-9893 •June'sPCE inflation data exceeded consensus expectations,withheadline PCE inflation rising 16 bps year-over-year to 2.58% and corePCE inflation increasing 3 bps to 2.79%. Our trendinflation modelssuggest a persistent underlying inflation rate, with monthly mean andmedianestimates holding steady at 3.0%and 2.9%,respectively.Quarterly median trend inflation remained at 2.7% in Q2, while the meanrosemarginally to 2.9%.These figures indicate a stagnation indisinflation progress, with trend inflation remaining near levels observeda year prior. Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 Brett RyanSenior US Economist+1-212-250-6294 Justin WeidnerEconomist+1-212-469-1679 •This stall in disinflation progress, alongsidethe weak July jobs report,points to growing tension for the Fed between its dual mandates. Whilethere are reasons to question the degree of weakness in the July jobsreport, a softer CPI print for July would undoubtedly further strengthenthe case for aSeptember cut (seeJuly CPI previewandThe missededucation of the July employment report). Indeed, the recent Fedcommunications reflect a divergence in perspectives, with some officialsmaintaining a hawkish bias while others favor a more dovish approach(seeSoft data, hard choices). While ourbaseline remains that the nextFed rate cut does not occur until December, the risks are that the Fedcould move at its next meeting. Trend inflation update Core PCE inflation remained strong in June, with the monthly rate increasing to26 bps and the annual rate edging up 3 bps to 2.79%. A significant driver wasdurable goods prices, which rebounded sharply by 47 bps month-over-month,pushing annual inflationto 93 bps–a multi-decade high outside of the pandemicperiod.This surge in goods inflation was concentrated in tariff-sensitivecategories, notably furnishings and equipment (+1.3% month-over-month) andrecreational goods (+0.92%), with the former experiencing its largest monthlyinflation since the pandemic. Service sector categories contributed 20 bps tomonthly core inflation, roughly consistent with itscontribution in the pre-pandemic period. Inflationary pressures within services were primarily driven byhousing and utilities (+0.35% month-over-month) and healthcare (+0.36%). To besure, monthly rental inflation remained within its pre-pandemic range of 20-30bps. The same can be said for the "super-core" inflation (core services excludinghousing),which remained stable at 19 bps. The near-term trends in "super-core"inflation show continued progress, with 3-month and 6-month annualized ratesat 1.8% and 3.1%, respectively. These data suggest a potential shift in the sourceof inflation from services to goods, as Chair Powell emphasized in the pressconference post July FOMC meeting (seeJuly FOMC recap: Still quite early daysfor September cut hopes). With these data, we updated our trend inflation dashboard, which replicates avariety of measures from the Fed staff's past work (seeTransient or persistent? Atrend inflation dashboard for decoding monthly datafor details about thedashboard components).Our preferred approach for interpreting these data is toaverage across the ten models that we track. Both our monthly mean and medianestimate for trend inflation remained relatively stable, holding at 3.0% and 2.9%,respectively. This persistence suggests a stalling of disinflation progress, withtrend inflation remaining at elevated levels observed a year prior. Within the individual measures, the trimmed mean PCE inflation increased by11bps to 2.7% in year-over-year terms while the Cleveland Fed’s median PCEinflation gauge rose by 14bps to 3.2%. The NY Fed’s multivariate core trendmeasure edged up by 2bps to 2.9% in June. The rest of our individual measuressaw little change from May, except for one. Inflation expectations from theUniversity of Michigan survey dropped by another 20bps to 4% in June afterpeaking in April following the tariff shocks. This had the effect of reducing thePhillips curve model-based estimates by 20bps to 4.5%. Incorporating the latestdata, our quarterly median trend inflation measure remained at 2.7% in Q2, whilethe mean estimate increased by 6 bps to 2.9%. This stall in disinflation progress, alongsidethe weak July jobs report, points togrowing tension for the Fed between its dual mandates. While there are reasonsto question the degree of weakness in the July jobs report, a softer CPI print forJuly would undoubtedly further strengthen the case for aSeptember cut (seeJulyCPI previewandThe missed education of the July employment report). Indeed,the recent Fed communications reflect a divergence in perspectives, with someofficials maintaining a hawkish bias while others favor a more dovish approach(seeSoft data, hard choices). While our baseline remains that the next Fed ratecut does not occur until December, the risks are that the Fed could mov