中国清洁能源创新：事实与虚构及未来启示

The contents of this paper are the author’ssole responsibility. They do notnecessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any ofits members. (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may bereproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without specialpermission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use ofthis publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without priorpermission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN978-1-78467-249-2 Contents Contents................................................................................................................................................iiFigures and Tables...............................................................................................................................iiSummary...............................................................................................................................................11.Introduction: Four main factors driving China’s clean energy innovation.............................32.China’s clean energy industries have benefited from strong and sustained policy support42.1Solar and wind supported by feed-in tariffs, targets, and mandates.......................................42.2Stationary batteries promoted recently for renewable integration...........................................62.3Electric vehicle policy began early, but accelerated only when industry achieved success...62.4R&D funding and supporting policies steadily ramped up.......................................................72.5Clean energy policy continuity aided industrial transition, with occasional abrupt shifts........83.China’s industry clusters, the unsung heroes that helped achieve scale and contributed toinnovation..............................................................................................................................................93.1Manufacturing-intensive clean-energy technologies favour close supply chain links...........103.2China’s policies have supported supply chain integration.....................................................123.3Many patterns of supply chain clustering and interaction.....................................................133.4Clusters and competition contribute to the pace of innovation..............................................143.5Proximity to a large demand base further supports innovation.............................................154.China’s innovation benefited from global links and technology transfer.............................164.1Technology transfers were a first step in wind and solar innovation in China......................174.2Batteries and EVs benefitted from licensing, joint ventures and localisation rules...............184.3Rising Chinese dominance evident in batteries and EVs......................................................195.Talent, human capital and entrepreneurs were instrumental to clean energy’s rise...........195.1The extraordinary rise in China’s skilled worker base...........................................................205.2Attracting science and technology talent helped seed new industries..................................205.3Risk-taking entrepreneurs played a key role.........................................................................216.Looking ahead: Is China’s lead in cleantech innovation unassailable?...............................22Acknowledgments..............................................................................................................................28 Figuresand Tables Figure 1: Chinese annual additions of solar PV (left) and wind(right)....................................................5Figure 2: Timeline of China’s wind and solar feed-in tariff policies.........................................................5Figure 3: R&D spending as a share of GDP in China (2010-2021), and comparison to othercountries/regions in 2021........................................................................................................................8Figure 4: Total production costs for mono PERC c-Si solar components by input, 2022.......................9Figure 5: US-China solar trade balance in 2011–Solar imports from China tothe US, versusestimated exports from the US to China...............................................................................................11Figure 6: Revenue share of top 10 solar equipment-making companies by country............................11Figure 7: Map of mid-2010s solar PVmanufacturing cluster in Yangtze River Delta...........................12Figure 8: Number of battery companies by province, location of top battery and EV firms, 2021........13Table 1: Historic top tech transfer andglobal innovation factors by sector: wind, PV, batteries, EVs..16Figure 10: China’s clean energy patent filings...............................