全球宏观观察：翻开新篇章

Max Kitson+44 (0) 20 3555 2386max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays, UK Global Macro Thoughts Turning the page 30 June 2025 The GMT will take a pause next week, due to the 4 July holiday in the US Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including importantdisclosures and analyst certifications, please follow the links on each page and on page 8. This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject toall ofthe independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reportsprepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis onbehalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report. Please see analyst certification(s) and important disclosures at the end of this presentation. Restricted - ExternalCompleted: 30-Jun-25, 09:21 GMT Released: 30-Jun-25, 09:26 GMT The world at a glance •Financial markets are ready to turn the page on tariff and tax bill headlines•The world economy will show the effects of the new tariff regime across H2•But we do not expect lasting damage, and expect a rebound in the US and Europe in 2026•Fears of a spiral in US debt and the currency are overdone, in our view•Making sense of it all Time to move on from tariff headlines •We expect average US tariffs to settle at 14-17%, much lower than mid-April fears oThe US-China tradedétenteshould continue, given US rare earth dependenceoWe also do not expect a lasting, major increase in tariffs on other partners on 9 July •The tax bill is very unlikely to pass by 4 July, but should before the August recess oThe bill is likely to look quite similar to the House version, without major changesoAfter factoring in tariff revenues, the incremental US deficitrises to $2-2.5trnover 10 years oWe expect inflation to risein the comingmonths, with the peak in September / OctoberoCore PCE inflation at year-end should be 3.1% (q4/q4), keeping the Fed on hold until December •We expect the US, euro area and China to grow at 0.6%, 0.2% and 3% (q4/q4 2025), respectively oThis is a disappointing climb-down from last year, when the US grew 2.5%(q4/q4 2024)oBut we do not expect lasting damage; the US jobless rate, for example, should peak at just 4.3%oAnd we expect a rebound in US and euro area growth in 2026, thanks to easier fiscal/monetary policyoAs trade/ tax policy uncertainty falls, markets will go back to focusing on macro data and corporateearnings 1Global Outlook: Turning the page(26 June 2025) Soft growth but no US recession in our latest forecasts The US should grow sub-1% (q/q saar) in H2, given a cooling labour market and a slowingconsumer Source: Barclays ResearchGlobal Outlook: Turning the page(26 June 2025) Fears of a spiral in the US currency and debt are overdone •The trade-weighted USD has weakened sharply since the start of the year oMuch of the move has come against the EUR, which recently broke out of a rangeoWe do not think this level of USD weakness is enough to dent the trade deficit thoughoTerm premia in US rates markets has also risen in recent months •We believe some risk premia increase is justified, given policy flipflops oAnd it is true that the US runs large fiscal and current account deficitsoChina’s tech successes and German fiscal stimulus are new ‘narratives’ in 2025oMoreover, there have been massive inflows into USD-denominated assets for decades •But the US’ many fundamental advantages have not suddenly faded oThe country’s financial markets are the deepest and most liquid in the worldoThe country is an energy superpower, and the world’s pre-eminent tech superpoweroThe US also controls global financial architecture; no other fiat currency comes close •We think concerns about a spiral in US assets–currency and debt–are now overdone oIt would take a significant policy mistake on the part of the government to cause new volatilityoIt is notable that the Senate is no longer pursuing S899–dubbed the so-called ‘revenge’ taxoEven if there is further USD weakness, markets will see it as risk-positive if it is not volatile 1Global Outlook: Turning the page(26 June 2025) We prefer equities to bonds heading into Q3 Our forecasts envisage modestly lower 10yUST yields, but a drift higher in German yields Equity positioning not too stretcheddespite the latest rally Making sense of it all •Even as US growth is set to slow, S&P 500 earnings have weathered the slowdown well oWe forecast S&P500 earnings of $262 this year, up 6% from last yearoWe also expect another 9% growth, to $285, next year as policy uncertainty fades •Much of the earnings growth comes from Big Tech, which is now benefiting from the AI dividend oThehyperscalerscontinue to ramp up spending on the compute side of AIoBut investor focus has now moved decisively