全球展望：翻开新篇章

Restricted - External Ajay Rajadhyaksha+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Global Interest RatesLong end: Budget bumps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23We believe long ends are likely to find their footing, as a high term premium likely attracts finaldemand, debt issuance graduallyshiftsaway from the long end and adverse fiscal news givesway to growth moderation. Financial repression will be a fallback as fiscal consolidation proveselusive.Trade PolicyHotel California:Tariffs,the dollar and US external rebalancing. . . . . . 47At the Hotel California, you can check in, but you can never leave. In the same vein, eradicatingthe US trade deficit is a near-impossible task that would involve recessionary policies,enormous exchange rate overshoots or deep and very nuanced industrial policies.AppendixGlobal forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Updated forecasts for global bond yields, WTI, Brent, global equity indices, select FX/EMcurrency pairs and key economic forecasts, including GDP, inflation, debt and interest rates. 2 This is a Special Report that is not an equity or a debt research report under U.S. FINRA Rules2241-2242.(i)This author is a debt research analyst in the Fixed Income, Currencies and CommoditiesResearch department and is neither an equity research analyst nor subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to analysts who produce debt researchreports under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242.ForewordTurning the pageFinancial markets are set to turn the page ontariffsand taxes,and focus instead on macro data and the AI boost tocorporate earnings. The world economy will slowsubstantially in 2025 from last year, but without lastingdamage; we expect a rebound in 2026.ListenFinancial markets have had a strange second quarter. Data fell by the wayside in importance inthe last few months. The only thing that mattered was the last headline from DC. Or the newesttariffrate. Or the latest social media post by the US president. Amid the US-Chinastandoff,weall became armchair experts on container ships between Ningbo and Long Beach. The AIrevolution might have been picking up pace in the background, but investors only wanted totalk about global trade. Much ink was spilt on the level oftariffs,the state of negotiations, theeconomic impact, etc. In the last month, the US tax bill (another source of DC headlines) hasalso taken centerstage. The chance of passage, the importance of the August recess, the detailsof Section 899, the deficit implications – it seems like every detail has mattered more to clientsthan actual macro developments.Well, no more.Tariffuncertainty has fallen sharply in recent weeks. The US has repeatedly backed down fromworst-case trade outcomes. A US-China trade détente seems to have been established. Investorshave stopped asking us what happensafter9 July. We expect UStariffsto settle at a levelbetween 14-17% - substantial but far from the worst case envisioned in April. The tax bill shouldalso see passage before August. Right now,differencesmay seem intractable. There are theHouse deficit hawks. There is the SALT caucus. There are Senators defending Medicaid, Senatorspushing for more spending cuts, and those asking for fewer cuts. But this is how the sausage ismade in Washington. Nothing concentrates the mind of our elected leaders more than knowingthat there is a looming tax hike and that they can't leave DC for home in the summer before theydo something about it. We feel confident that the bill will pass (without big changes to theHouse version) by the August recess.Which means –aftermonths of being whipsawed by policy headlines –financial markets areturning the page on trade and taxes.And so are we.26 June 2025 Ajay Rajadhyaksha(i)+1 212 412 7669ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.comBCI, US Of course, there is still the issue of the economy having to adjust to a newtariffregime. Themost visible impact should be in US prices. The US just had a really good 3m streak on core PCEinflation, but there is a big jump in goods prices coming. We think it will show up in the datasoon, and peak by end-Q3 or early Q4, with core PCE at 3.1% q4/q4 2025. That should beenough to keep the Fed on the sidelines until December, notwithstanding the president’s call forquicker cuts. Meanwhile, consumption should slow as prices rise, the labour market is slowing(slowly), and housing activity is struggling. Europe has its own growth challenges; Q1 wasflattered by front-loading of exports but that won’t last. And while there has been some goodnews on China consumption and exports, the real estate sector still hasn’t bottomed. We havepenciled in 0.6% q4/q4 2025 real GDP growth for the US, 0.2% for the euro area, and 3% forChina.That’s a big climb-down from last year’s numbers, in all three major economies. But the US andEurope should see a rebound in 2026. The US tax