央行数字货币与银行业：类现金设计的宏观经济效益

Management Science Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:http://pubsonline.informs.org Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking:Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design Jonathan Chiu, Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini To cite this article:Jonathan Chiu, Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini (2023) Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design. Management Science 69(11):6708-6730. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763 Full terms and conditions of use: https://pubsonline.informs.org/Publications/Librarians-Portal/PubsOnLine-Terms-and-Conditions This article may be used only for the purposes of research, teaching, and/or private study. Commercial useor systematic downloading (by robots or other automatic processes) is prohibited without explicit Publisherapproval, unless otherwise noted. For more information, contact permissions@informs.org. The Publisher does not warrant or guarantee the article’s accuracy, completeness, merchantability, fitnessfor a particular purpose, or non-infringement. Descriptions of, or references to, products or publications, orinclusion of an advertisement in this article, neither constitutes nor implies a guarantee, endorsement, orsupport of claims made of that product, publication, or service. Copyright © 2023, INFORMS Please scroll down for article—it is on subsequent pages With 12,500 members from nearly 90 countries, INFORMS is the largest international association of operations research (O.R.)and analytics professionals and students. INFORMS provides unique networking and learning opportunities for individualprofessionals, and organizations of all types and sizes, to better understand and use O.R. and analytics tools and methods totransform strategic visions and achieve better outcomes.For more information on INFORMS, its publications, membership, or meetings visit http://www.informs.org CentralBankDigitalCurrencyandBanking:MacroeconomicBenefitsofaCash-LikeDesign JonathanChiu,a,*SeyedMohammadrezaDavoodalhosseinia aBankingandPaymentsDepartment,BankofCanada,Ottawa,OntarioK1A0G9,Canada*CorrespondingauthorContact:jchiu@bankofcanada.ca,https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3276-5927(JC);davo@bankofcanada.ca,https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6813-1088(SMD) Abstract.Manycentralbanksareconsideringissuingacentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC).HowwilltheCBDCaffectthemacroeconomy?Willitsdesignmatter?Toanswerthesequestions,wetheoreticallyandquantitativelyassesstheeffectsofaCBDConcon-sumption,banking,andwelfare.Ourmodelcapturesthecompetitionbetweendifferentmeansofpaymentsandincorporatesanovelgeneralequilibriumfeedbackeffectfromtransactionstodepositscreation.ThegeneralequilibriumeffectsofaCBDCaredecom-posedintothreechannels:paymenteffciency,priceeffects,andbankfundingcosts.Weshowthatacash-likeCBDCismoreeffectivethanadeposit-likeCBDCinpromotingcon-sumptionandwelfare.Interestingly,acash-likeCBDCcanalsocrowdinbanking,evenintheabsenceofbankmarketpower.Inacalibratedmodel,atthemaximum,acash-likeCBDCcanincreasebankintermediationby10.2%andwelfareby0.059%,anditcancap-tureupto23.3%ofthepaymentmarket.WealsodiscusssomelessonsfordesigningaCBDC. Received:August24,2021Revised:March18,2022;December16,2022;May12,2023Accepted:May22,2023PublishedOnlineinArticlesinAdvance:August31,2023 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763 Copyright:©2023INFORMS History:AcceptedbyWillCong,SpecialSectionofManagementScience:BlockchainsandCryptoEconomics.SupplementalMaterial:Thedataflesandonlineappendixareavailableathttps://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763. Keywords:centralbankdigitalcurrency•banking•generalequilibrium•payments investmentaresoldtohouseholdsinafrictionalretailmarket.In the absence of perfect credit,householdsbringaportfolioofcashanddepositstofnancethesetrades.Asintherealworld,themodelfeaturesdifferenttypesoftransactions.2Intype1transactions,cashistheonlyviablepaymentoption(e.g.,someoffinetransac-tions).Intype2transactions,cashisnotviable,andonlydepositsandcreditareused(e.g.,onlinetransactions).Intype3transactions,allpaymentinstrumentscanbeused(e.g.,inmostphysicalretailstores).Asdepositsareusedintransactions,theimpliedliquiditypremiumlow-ersbanks’fundingcosts.Ourmodelincorporatestwokeyfeatures.Thefrst 1. Introduction Severalcentralbanksareconsideringissuingacentralbankdigitalcurrency(CBDC)forretailpayments.1Thekeymotivationsincludedomesticpaymentseffciencyandsafety,fnancialinclusion,andfnancialstability.Itiscommonlybelievedthattheintroductionofa CBDCmayhaveprofoundimplicationsfortheeff-ciencyandstabilityofthemacroeconomy.Inparticular,onefrequentlyraisedpolicyconcernisthataCBDC,bycompetingwith banks for deposit funding,couldcrowdoutbankingandreduceoutput—apointdis-cussedinrecentreportsbytheInternationalMonetaryFund(Mancini-Griffolietal.2018)andbytheCommit-teeonPaymentsandMarketInfrastructures(2018)oftheBankforInternationalSettlements(2021).Toinformthispolicydiscussion,thispaperprovidesatheoreticalandquantitativeassessm