央行数字货币和银行业：类现金设计的宏观经济效益

This article was downloaded by: [2001:da8:d800:a7f6:c9b8:99dd:9bc3:15c0] On: 13 January 2024, At: 20:54Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)INFORMS is located in Maryland, USAManagement SciencePublication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:http://pubsonline.informs.orgCentral Bank Digital Currency and Banking:Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like DesignJonathan Chiu, Seyed Mohammadreza DavoodalhosseiniTo cite this article:Jonathan Chiu, Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseini (2023) Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: MacroeconomicBenefits of a Cash-Like Design. Management Science 69(11):6708-6730. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763Full terms and conditions of use: https://pubsonline.informs.org/Publications/Librarians-Portal/PubsOnLine-Terms-and-ConditionsThis article may be used only for the purposes of research, teaching, and/or private study. Commercial useor systematic downloading (by robots or other automatic processes) is prohibited without explicit Publisherapproval, unless otherwise noted. For more information, contact permissions@informs.org.The Publisher does not warrant or guarantee the article’s accuracy, completeness, merchantability, fitnessfor a particular purpose, or non-infringement. Descriptions of, or references to, products or publications, orinclusion of an advertisement in this article, neither constitutes nor implies a guarantee, endorsement, orsupport of claims made of that product, publication, or service.Copyright © 2023, INFORMSPlease scroll down for article—it is on subsequent pagesWith 12,500 members from nearly 90 countries, INFORMS is the largest international association of operations research (O.R.)and analytics professionals and students. INFORMS provides unique networking and learning opportunities for individualprofessionals, and organizations of all types and sizes, to better understand and use O.R. and analytics tools and methods totransform strategic visions and achieve better outcomes.For more information on INFORMS, its publications, membership, or meetings visit http://www.informs.org Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like DesignJonathan Chiu,a,* Seyed Mohammadreza Davoodalhosseinia aBanking and Payments Department, Bank of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G9, Canada *Corresponding author Contact: jchiu@bankofcanada.ca, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3276-5927(JC); davo@bankofcanada.ca, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6813-1088(SMD) Received: August 24, 2021 Revised: March 18, 2022; December 16, 2022; May 12, 2023 Accepted: May 22, 2023 Published Online in Articles in Advance: August 31, 2023 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02763 Copyright: © 2023 INFORMSAbstract. Many central banks are considering issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). How will the CBDC affect the macroeconomy? Will its design matter? To answer these questions, we theoretically and quantitatively assess the effects of a CBDC on con-sumption, banking, and welfare. Our model captures the competition between different means of payments and incorporates a novel general equilibrium feedback effect from transactions to deposits creation. The general equilibrium effects of a CBDC are decom-posed into three channels: payment efficiency, price effects, and bank funding costs. We show that a cash-like CBDC is more effective than a deposit-like CBDC in promoting con-sumption and welfare. Interestingly, a cash-like CBDC can also crowd in banking, even in the absence of bank market power. In a calibrated model, at the maximum, a cash-like CBDC can increase bank intermediation by 10.2% and welfare by 0.059%, and it can cap-ture up to 23.3% of the payment market. We also discuss some lessons for designing a CBDC.History:Accepted by Will Cong, Special Section of Management Science: Blockchains and Crypto Economics. Supplemental Material:The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc. 2021.02763. Keywords:central bank digital currency•banking•general equilibrium•payments1. IntroductionSeveral central banks are considering issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for retail payments.1The key motivations include domestic payments efficiency and safety, financial inclusion, and financial stability.It is commonly believed that the introduction of a CBDC may have profound implications for the effi-ciency and stability of the macroeconomy. In particular, one frequently raised policy concern is that a CBDC, by competing with banks for deposit funding, could crowd out banking and reduce output—a point dis-cussed in recent reports by the International Monetary Fund (Mancini-Griffoli et al. 2018) and by the Commit-tee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (2018) of the Bank for International Settlements (2021). To inform this policy discussion, this paper provides a theoretical and quantitative assessment of introducing a CBDC. We show that the concern