中国产业政策：量化及其对错配的影响

Industrial Policy in China:Quantification and Impacton Misallocation Daniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari, Yutong Li, and YifanTao WP/25/155 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025AUG IMF Working Paper Asia andthePacificDepartment Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on MisallocationPrepared byDaniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari, Yutong Li, and Yifan Tao* Authorized for distribution by Sonali Jain-ChandraAugust2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper quantifies the size of the main industrial policy instruments in China and estimatestheir impact on domestic factor misallocation and aggregate productivity. The quantification of industrial policyinstruments leverages data from financial reports of listed firms and the land registry. The equivalent fiscal costof industrial policy through cash subsidies, tax benefits, subsidized credit, and subsidized land for favoredsectors (including both private and state-owned firms) is estimated at about 4 percent of GDP per year, with agrowing share of tax benefits over time. Next, the paper uses a structural model to estimate the relationshipbetween industrial policies and factor misallocation for a broad sample of firms. Various industrial policyinstruments are found to affect factor allocations in different ways—subsidies tend to lead to excess production,while trade and regulatory barriers limit production. Overall, factor misallocation from industrial policies isestimated to reduce domestic aggregate TFP by about 1.2 percent. The results resonate with IMF policyrecommendations for China to scale back industrial policy and increase its transparency. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Garcia-Macia, Daniel, Siddharth Kothari, Yutong Li, and Yifan Tao. 2025.“Industrial Policy in China: Quantification and Impact on Misallocation”, International Monetary Fund WorkingPaper No. 2025/155. Industrial Policy in China:Quantification and Impact onMisallocation PreparedbyDaniel Garcia-Macia, Siddharth Kothari, Yutong Li, and YifanTao1 Contents 1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3 Cash Subsidies..............................................................................................................................................5Tax Benefits...................................................................................................................................................5Subsidized Credit...........................................................................................................................................6Subsidized Land.............................................................................................................................................8Total Size of IP.............................................................................................................................................10 Model............................................................................................................................................................12Empirical Approach......................................................................................................................................13Data..............................................................................................................................................................14Results.........................................................................................................................................................15Between-sector misallocation................................................................................................................15Within-sector misallocation....................................................................................................................17Contribution to misallocation and cross-country comparison................................................................17Firm-level TFP.......................................................................................................................................18Aggregate TFP Impact..........................................................................................................................19Industrial Champions..........................................................................................................................