新车上市及汽车金融政策调整导致7月折扣收窄

Auto changes Jul discounts narrowed amid new models, auto financepolicy changes We summarize theJul2025price discounts at dealers for major automakersin this report. Note thatJuldiscounts for each automaker are calculatedbased on the weighted average ofJun2025 retail sales volume for eachmodel, asJul2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet. China Auto Sector Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk The industrywide average discountsnarrowed 0.3ppts MoM to 15.1% inJul2025, based on our calculations, mainly driven byGerman luxury brands(BMW,Mercedes-Benz andAudi), as dealers need to raise car prices tooffset lower commissions fromtheauto finance business after banks cutrebates to dealers.Major Chinese brands’ average discounts remainedrelatively stable last month, thanks to the sales ramp-up of new models withlower discounts.On the other hand,most OEMscut their rebates todealersin Julcompared with Jun, based on our channel checks, in a bid to minimizemargin dent amidtheprolonged price war.We have not seen clear signalsfor dealers’ inflection point. We believe Geely and Leapmotor could be betterpositioned than mostof its peers withastrong new model pipeline and salesmomentum, as well as stable discounts. Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk The NEV trio and Leapmotor.In Jul 2025,Li Auto’s average discountsremained flatMoMat 4.0%(Figure 2) withits deliveries falling 15% MoMto 31,000 units. Li Auto simplified the trim levels of thei8in response tocustomerfeedback,partially reflecting weaker-than-expected orderintakes. We are of the view that such changes could dent thei8’s grossmargin, which means that Li Auto has probably prioritized sales volumeover gross margin for BEVs. We expect the upcomingi6’s pricing couldbe more aggressive than Li Auto’s existing models.Xpeng’saveragediscountsremained low in Jul (Figure 3) and could narrow slightly MoMif we account for theG7’s sales ramp-up. We expect discounts forXpeng’s existing new models to widen in the next few months. Theoverall discounts could largely depend on new models. The redesignedP7madeits debut on 6 Aug.NIO’saveragediscountsremained flatMoMat8.5% inJul(Figure 1),although the automaker has provided morebattery swap coupons and auto finance benefits to the OnvoL60buyers,based on our channel checks. The OnvoL90launchedon31 Jul waswell received with its competitive pricing. Our concerns about theOnvoL90would be its gross margin rather than sales volume.Leapmotor’saverage discounts fell 1.3ppts MoM to6.8% inJul(Figure 4), aided bythe faceliftedC10/C11/C16launchedin May-Jul, as well as the salesramp-up of theB10.Leapmotor’s dealers cleared the inventories of theoldC10andC16in the first half of Jul 2025. We expect Leapmotor’saverage discounts to be lower than 10% by the end of 3Q25 with thesales ramp-up of theB01sedan. Related Reports:“China Auto Sector-2Q25 earnings preview and 2H25 outlook”–11 Jul 2025 “China Auto Sector-New models to drive NEVsales in 3Q after a solid Jun”–2 Jul 2025 Geely. Geely’s average discounts at dealers rose0.9ppts MoM to11.2%inJul(Figure 6), mainly due to the1-3ppts discount hikesfor major NEVsto withstand competition, in line with our prior expectation.However, weexpect limited dent on Geely’s gross margin, as it cut rebates for Galaxy-brand dealers in Julcompared with Jun, based on our channel checks.Geely’s new NEV models in 2H25, including the GalaxyM9, GalaxyA7and GalaxyXingyao 6,could probably help Geely stabilize its discountsat dealers,in our view. Great Wall Motor.Great Wall’s average discounts at dealersfell 1.0pptMoM to 9.0% inJul(Figure 5),thanks to the launch of the facelifted OraHaomaoand inventory clearance of the old WeyGaoshanandLanshan.The company plans to roll out several facelifted models in Aug-Sep,including the Tank500/400/700,2nd-generationDagou,Menglongand WeyGaoshan 7.The companywill introduce new platforms with brand-new NEVsunderWey and Ora brands in 2H25, respectively, which couldbe key to lifting its NEV market share in 2026. BYD. BYD’s average discounts at dealers remained largely flat MoM at9.4% in Jul (Figure 7).In fact, its average discounts exceeded 10% inthe first half of Jul 2025, the highest at least since 2020. The discountsnarrowed to 8.8% in the second half of Jul 2025,as dealers clearedinventories of some old models, including theQin PlusEV andSong PlusEV.WeestimateBYD’s inventories at dealers in Chinatodecrease fora second consecutive month to about 0.7mn units in Jul.We expectBYD’s inventory destocking tocontinue, should its sales volume remainsluggish.BYD has significantly cut or even halted its procurement fromsome suppliers for a month or so, based on our channel checks. GAC Group.GAC Trumpchi’s average discounts at dealersrose 0.6pptsMoM to 11.9% in Jul(Figure 8),given wider discounts for the TrumpchiM6andGS3.GAC Aion’s average discounts at dealers remained largelystableat 9.6%inJul