中国即将到来的人工智能繁荣

DB China Economics &Asia Company Research March 2025 Outlines Why is AI adoption accelerating in China? •Lower cost enables rapid expansion of AIinvestment•China’s competitive edge in AI adoption•Charting the path for emerging AI industries EconomicsYi XiongDeyun Ou Which sectors should benefit the most from AI? Company ResearchPeter MillikenLeo ChiangCyrus NgBin WangJohnny XieJessie XuHan ZhangIris ZhengGary Zhou •AI Infrastructure: semiconductor, cloud, datacenter, energy•AI applications: mega-apps, AI agent,application to healthcare/financial/consumersectors•Embodied AI: Intelligent cars, humanoid robots Summary China’sadoptionofAIhassuddenlyaccelerated.DeepSeek'sreleaseservedasacatalyst,shiftingthefocusfromdevelopingbiggermodelstoreal-worldapplications.ThisalsotriggeredasurgeinAIinvestmentacrossChineseindustries. Whyisthishappeningnow?Inthisreport,wediscusswhyChinesecompanieslikelypossessacompetitiveadvantageincertainapplicationsofAI.Firstly,AIapplicationrequirescross-industryinnovation,combiningAIwiththeexpertiseanddatafromsectorssuch as smartphones,mega-apps,and electric vehicles.This is furtheramplifiedbyChina’scomprehensiveandagileindustrialsupplychain,enablingrapidprototypinganditerationofAI-poweredproducts.Furthermore,adynamicdomesticmarketprovidesafertiletestinggroundfornewapplications,whilealargepoolofAItalentsandengineersfuelsdevelopment. ThereportoutlinesapathforemergingAIapplicationsinChinaoverthenextdecade.Thenear term prioritizes AI infrastructure,including semiconductors,cloudcomputing,datacenters,andenergysolutions.Thenear-tomedium-termfocusesonAIapplications like mega-apps,AI agents,and integration within healthcare,consumer,andfinancialindustries.Lookingfurtherahead,themedium-tolong-termvisioncentersonembodiedAI,connectingAItothephysicalworldthroughvesselssuchasintelligentcarsandhumanoidrobots. Why isAI adoptionaccelerating in China? The “Android moment” and China’s competitive edge in disruptiveinnovation TounderstandthepotentialofAIinnovationinChina,considertheparalleloftheChinesesmartphoneindustry'sriseinthe2010s,whenGoogle’sinnovationinAndroidOSfueledadecadeofexplosivegrowthinsmartphones.AhandfulofChinesecompaniesemergedandhavenowbecometopsmartphonemakersinChinaandglobally. Thissuccessstoryoffersseveralkeylessons: 1)Dramaticcostreduction:Android'sopen-sourcenaturedrasticallyreduceddevelopmentcosts,drivingexponentialgrowthinsmartphonedemand.2)Intense competition:numerous companies entered the market,fostering a highly dynamic and competitiveenvironment.3)Rapid iteration:LeveragingChina's extensive industrial base and readily available suppliers,manufacturerssignificantlyshortenedproductdevelopmentcycles,rapidlyintroducingnewfeaturesandincorporatingcustomerfeedbackwhilesimultaneouslycuttingcosts. WebelievetheforthcomingAIrevolutioninChinawilllikelyexhibitsimilarcharacteristics. Android OS accelerated smartphone sales globally… …with Chinese phone makers winning large market shares Global smart phone shipment, 100mn units DeepSeek is enabling rapid expansion of AI users and applications •DeepSeekissmartyetaffordable.TheDeepSeekV3andR1open-sourcemodelsoffercomparableperformancetoleadingLLMsatafractionofthecost,significantlyloweringthebarriertoentryforanyonetointegrateAIintoitsownproducts. •Rapidexpansionofusers.DeepSeekwaswidelyreportedtohavereached100milliondownloadswithinweeksoflaunchandhasaround50millionofactivedailyusersasoftoday.OtherAIappsinChina,suchasBytedance'sDoubaoandTencent'sYuanbao,havealsoseenacceleratedusergrowth. •Open-sourceAImodelshavebecomemainstream.DeepSeek‘sopen-sourcingofmodelweights,methodologypapers,andcodeacceleratestheoveralldevelopmentoftheopen-sourceAIecosystem.ManyChineseAIdevelopershavereleasedtheir own reasoning models following DeepSeek R1.LLMs are no longer a luxury but have become acommodity. •Notjustachatbot.DeepSeek’simprovementstoTransformerAIarchitecturearen’tjustforchatbots,butcanalsobeadoptedtoawiderangeofTransformer-basedAImodels,suchasthoseusedforautonomousdriving(E2E,VLM)androbotics(VLA)tohelptheseAImodelsbecomefasterandsmarter. Acceleration of Reasoning Models in China ByebyeScaling Law, Hello Jevons Paradox:Chinese tech firms are scaling up AI investment WhenUStechcompaniesscaledupinvestmentinGenerativeAIinrecentyears,Chinesetechcompaniesinitiallylagged.Butachangeisunderway:investmentbyChinesetechcompaniesacceleratedsignificantlyinQ42024.Why? •Diminishingreturnsofscale:theScalingLawinAI,wherelargermodelsconsistentlyyieldedbetterperformance,ismaybereachinga point of diminishing returns as recent releases of larger models have not generated sufficient performanceimprovements.Thisshiftinthecost-benefitdynamiccreatesanopportunityforalternativeapproaches. •Jevons'Paradoxdrivesdemand:AsAImodeldevelopmentcostsdecrease,theaccessibilityofAIincreases,leadingtoasurgeinconsumerdemand.Thisincreaseddemandisnotnecessarilyforthemostsophisticatedmodels,butratherforefficient,practicalapplicationsofAIthatmeetspecificconsumerneeds