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Max Kitson+44 (0) 20 3555 2386max.kitson@barclays.comBarclays, UK Global Macro Thoughts A pivotal week Pratham Hukmat Kingar+91 (0) 22 6175 2018prathamhukmat.kingar@barclays.comBarclays, UK 28 July 2025 Where noted in the source notes, the views expressed within this report are taken from previously published research. For further detail, including importantdisclosures and analyst certifications, please follow the links on each page and on page 8. This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reportsprepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis onbehalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report. Please see analyst certification(s) and important disclosures at the end of this presentation. Restricted - ExternalRestricted - ExternalCompleted: 28-Jul-25, 11:13 GMT Released: 28-Jul-25, 11:18 GMT The world at a glance •An event-heavy week should set the tone for August•No big policy surprises, either from Treasury or the Fed•We expect sub-100k in payrolls in this week’s print•On tariffs: a trade deal for Japan, followed by a deal for the EU•In China: the ‘anti-involution’ push, and several other recent boosts to risk sentiment•Making sense of it all No big policy surprises from Treasury – or the Fed •We do not expect markets to be surprised by this week’s QRA announcement1 oTreasury should forecast Q3/Q4 private net borrowing needs of $825-850bn each quarteroOur estimate assumes a cash balance of $750bn by Q3 and $850bn by Q4 (from $500bn in July) •We do not expect coupon auction sizes to change, and certainly no reduction1 oTreasury will commit to holding coupon sizes unchanged for several quarters; we see a jump only in 2027oWe expect scaled-up buybacks, with quarterly maximum amounts rising from $30bn to $48bnoThe TBAC minutes could focus on T-bill demand from stablecoins, letting bill share of issuance rise •There shouldn’t be Fed surprises either, with the fed funds rate unchanged yet again2 oChair Powell will likely emphasise that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest ratesoThe Fed will likely not sharpen its September guidance, especially given July payrolls will not yet be availableon Wednesday oBoth have called for imminent rate cuts; Waller is arguably auditioning for Fed chairoThe vast majority of the FOMC is between zero to two cuts in 2025; we don’t see that changing FOMC and payrolls are key events this week The labour market appears to haveimproved off the lows Core inflation is starting to rise, with tariffslikely to bring further upward pressure Tariff uncertainty is dropping, and the ECB moves to‘wait-and-watch’ •We expect the US payroll report to show 75k jobs created; consensus is 100k1 oJune’s 63k jump in state/local jobs should reverse; we expect 100k in private payrollsoThis will bring the 3mma to 122k, right in line with last month’s 3mma of 127koAHE should post a trend-like 0.3% m/m; U3 should stay in the 4.1-4.2% range •The Japan trade deal with the US was a positive surprise; the Nikkei rallied sharply1 oReciprocal tariffs from the US fell to 15%; auto tariffs fell similarlyoThe swiftness of the deal and tariff levels were clearly pleasing to marketsoAfter the Japan trade deal, the average tariff on all US imports is now near 16% •Over the weekend the US and EU also concluded a trade deal, which should further boost risk sentiment2oEU exports into the US will face a tariff rate of 15%, in line with indications in press reports last week1oBrussels has agreed to buy $750bn of US energy products and invest $600bn in the US •Despite some trade risk, ECB President Lagarde was hawkish at last week’s meeting1oShe suggested that the ECB was ‘..on hold...’ and in ‘wait-and-watch’ modeoShe also downplayed the projected inflation undershoot as well as risks to growth 1Global Economics Weekly: High stakes, big deals(25 July 2025)2US and EU reach tariff agreement to avert trade war, FT, 27 July 2025 The equity rally could still have legs LO positioning in equity futures is still downYTD Equity exposure of long-onlys still remainsbelow the long-term median Making sense of it all •There have been a number of boosts to China risk sentiment in recent days1 oThe US lifted the NVDA chip ban, and US-China talks will soon start in Stockholm2oChina announced the world’s largest hydropower project recentlyoThe country is also looking to rein in excess capacity; the ‘anti-involution’ push •Alphabet’s Q2 earnings eased concerns about AI cannibalising Google’s search business3 oSearch revenue grew healthily, paid clicks accelerated, and earnings beat consensusoAlphabet boosted capex to $85bn (from $75bn) for full-year 2025; markets cheered the newsoThe stock rose over 4% last week, which bodes w