在科索沃绿色过渡期间支持人民和保护工人

April 2025 Executive Summary Kosovo has been solidifying its eƯorts for the green transition, shaped by international and nationalcommitments. Thecountry joined global climate action eƯorts in 2018, setting voluntary nationalcommitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the share of renewable energy. Aspart of the Energy Community Treaty, Kosovo committed to harmonizing its climate change policieswith the European Union and contributing to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. Despite steadyeconomic growth and poverty reduction, Kosovo faces challenging labor market conditions with lowlevels of labor force participation and employment, low productivity, and significant unemployment. The report reviews the impact of the green transition on employment in Kosovo and the eƯects it willhave on the workforce and the skills base required in the future. Globally, as in Kosovo, the structuralchange of the currently carbon-intensive economy will inevitably displace jobs in polluting sectorswith high Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, while creating new jobs that accompany the changingeconomy. The magnitude of risks that losers of the transition will face varies depending on the skillsgap that workers need to overcome to move into green occupations, or at minimum, to one not at riskof displacement. Understanding the diƯerentiated risks is crucial for theSocial Protection and Labor(SPL) system to facilitate workers’ smooth transition by providing intermediation, retraining, andup/reskilling opportunities, and provide those who fall between the cracks with appropriatetemporary safety net support. The green transition will cause significant job reallocation. Direct job displacement in Kosovo isexpected to be relatively small (4% of jobs in Kosovo estimated to be displaced due to the transition).But a larger share, 17% of jobs, will face significant changes in task content, requiring substantialup/reskilling of the workforce. Workers with low levels of education and low-skilled occupations willbe more severely impacted due to larger skills gaps to green jobs. Women and men will be aƯecteddiƯerently. While men are likely to face more direct impacts of job displacement and tasktransformation, women have larger skill gaps to safe or green jobs, in addition to existing employmentbarriers. Kosovo has most of the SLP measures needed to support workers through the green transition inplace, however, coverage and capacity of labor and activation measures, as well as social assistanceprogramming exist making theSPL system inadequate to provide the needed support to aƯectedworkers and their household members. The Ministry of Finance, Labor, and Transfers (MFLT) hasalready determined several areas of required policy reforms in the Employment Strategy 2024includingstrengthening the training system,activation strategies that encourage inclusion,enhanced employment services, active labor market measures, and measures to encourageformalization. However, the public employment services (PES) are limited in resources andcapacities, which negatively impacts the quality of services. Kosovo is also the only country in theWestern Balkans that does not have an Unemployment Insurance scheme. Existing retraining andre/upskillingmechanisms do not adequately cover jobseekers,especially the long-termunemployed. The Ministry is also in the midst of reforming its social assistance programs to bettercover individuals and households in need. To ensure that the SPL system can adequately support workers during the transition, the coverage,quality and resilience of the SPL system would need to be strengthen from the foundation. Thisincludes increasing resources and capacities for public employment services, hiring additionalcounselors, and improving the quality of intermediation services. Expanding and strengtheningexisting retraining and upskilling programs provided through Vocational Training Centers to betteralign with market needs and involve relevant businesses is crucial. Targeted and tailored active labormarket measures (ALMPs) for vulnerable groups, including women, youth, persons with disabilities,and ethnic minorities, will be needed to ensure an inclusive transition. In addition to ongoing reformsto the country’s main social assistance program, broader investments into the targeting, deliverysystems and linkages to employment services of social assistance system is needed, for it toeƯectively act as a last resort income support to those most in need. However, further investments and collaboration with all stakeholders in the labor market ecosystemare essential to ensure a smooth transition. A proactive response to the green transition will need toincreasingly involve all stakeholders in the labor market ecosystem. To do so, in addition to continuestrengthening its core delivery systems, Kosovo will need to simultaneously (i) expand its ability toprovide adult education based on local labor market demand, (ii) gather and distribu