2024年第四季度住宅物业价格统计

•Inthe fourth quarter of2024, global real house prices decreased by 1.6% yearonyear (yoy),a decline ratesimilar tothe previous quarters; this wasdespite amodest rise innominal prices (+1.8%).•Advanced economies (AEs) saw real house price growth of 1.0% yoy, led bydevelopments inthe euro area (+1.9%).In contrast, prices inemerging marketeconomies(EMEs)extended theirdecline (–3.5%), largely driven by a 5.7% dropinAsia.Developments exhibited even greater variability across individualjurisdictions.•From a long-term perspective,globalreal house prices remain20%above theirlevels observed after the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis.•Toaccess the fulldataset, visitResidential property prices-overview | BIS DataPortal. Summary of latest developments In the fourth quarter of 2024, global house prices deflated by consumer prices fell by1.6% yoy,a rateunchanged fromthe third quarter.1 AEssawa modest recovery, withreal house pricesincreasingby 1.0% yoyin aggregate,markingthe strongest growthrecordedsince Q22022.The rebound was especially notable inthe euro area (+1.9%)and other European countries(+1.4%)(Table 1). In contrast,prices inEMEsextended theirdeclineobservedsince Q2 2022,droppingby 3.5% yoyin real terms(Graph 1),particularly inemergingAsia (–5.7%).This wasonlypartially offset bystronger developmentsinLatin America (+3.1%) and centraland eastern Europe (+1.9%). Thefall observed in aggregate for global real residential property prices inQ42024was mainly driven by a few large economies. In fact,thevast majority ofjurisdictionsexperiencednoticeableprice increases, with the median price growthreaching 2.1% (Graph 2.A).About one half of AEs(45%)and one thirdofEMEs (35%)registered real price increases of0 to 5%, and onefourth ofAEs evensaw robustgrowth in the 5 to 10% range(Graph 2.B).2 Among all reporting jurisdictions,Bulgariaregistered the highestprice increase(16%), followed by Hungary(9%)and Spain(9%).Conversely,prices fell significantly inTürkiye(–12%), Hong Kong SAR(–9%)and China(–9%)(Graph 3). Source:BIS selected residential property price series. In mostG20 economies,real house prices remain significantly above pre-pandemiclevels,by 3% globally.However, there are significant differences betweencountries, withTürkiye leading (+111%) and Chinaregisteringthe steepest decline(–15%) since the pandemic. Froma longer-term perspective,aggregate real house prices exceed their post-Great Financial Crisis (GFC)levels by 20% globally (by 33% for AEs and 11%for EMEs).Since 2010,theyhave increased by more than 50% in non-EuropeanAEs, 22% inEuropean AEs outside the euro areaand 8% in the euro area. In EMEs,they increasedby20%in Latin America,11% in centraland easternEurope and10% in emergingAsia(Table 1).However, housepricesremain below their post-GFC levelsinone thirdofG20 jurisdictions, in particular South Africa (–12%) and Italy (–26%)(Graph 4). Source:BIS calculations based on selected residential property price series. Advanced economies In aggregate for AEs, real residential property pricesincreased by 1.0% yoy in Q42024, the strongest growth since Q22022.Real house prices were up inthe euro area(1.9%)and,for the first time since 2022,inthe United Kingdom(1%).Theyremainedbroadlystable in the United States(1%) andJapan(0%)andcontinued to declinesignificantlyin Canada(–3%)(Graph 5). In Q4 2024,realhouse prices in the euro areaincreased by 1.9%.Spain (+9%)and Portugal (+9%) recorded thehighestincreases, followed by Greece (+4%)andItaly (+3%).Prices stabilised in Germany (0%)followingan extended period of pricedeclines.Meanwhile,theykept falling inAustria (–3%)andFrance (–3%),thoughat aslower pacethan inprevious quarters (Graph 6). Source:BIS selected residential property price series. Emerging market economies In Q4 2024, house prices inEMEsdecreased further,by 3.5% yoy,largely driven by afew majorAsianjurisdictionsanddespite thepartialoffsetprovidedby Latin Americaneconomies. In emerging Asia,real residential propertypricesdeclined in manyplaces:HongKongand Chinaexperiencedsignificantdeclinesofaround9%each.Pricesalsofellin India (–2%) andKorea(–2%). Conversely, pricesrose in thePhilippines(4%)(Graph7). Real house prices in Latin America showed moderate growth,driven byMexico(+4%)andBrazil (+2%).In central and eastern Europe, real pricesroseby1.9% inaggregate, withnotablegrowthin Bulgaria(16%)and Poland(5%), while they fell inTürkiye (–12%). Prices continued to decline in South Africa (–2%)(Graph8). Source:BIS selected residential property price series. Annex: Nominal house price developments