盘面高位回落，下游买盘涌出

、smingfTable_Title]盘面高位回落，下游买盘涌出 陈祎萱CFA高级分析师（有色金属）从业资格号：F3074710投资咨询号：Z0017769Tel:8621-63325888-2722Email:yixuan.chen@orientfutures.com 碳酸锂：震荡2025年8月3日 上周（07/28-08/01）锂盐价格高位回落。LC2508收盘价环比-13.7%至6.85万元/吨，LC2509收盘价环比-14.4%至6.89万元/吨；SMM电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-2.1%至7.14、6.93万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格延续上行，SMM粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比+4.0%、3.7%至6.57、7.08万元/吨。电工价差环比略收窄至0.21万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比收窄0.41万元至0.57万元/吨。 此前，在商品市场乐观氛围下，碳酸锂供应端的不确定性吸引多头资金快速涌入碳酸锂、而仓单生成节奏相对偏慢，LC2509交割风险有所上升。广期所近一周内连续发布两次限仓公告、以平抑市场的过度投机情绪，上周LC2509大幅减仓27万手至21万手，预计下周主力合约将实现平稳换月、交割风险回落。 短期投机情绪退温带动盘面大幅回落，后续价格走势或逐步回归基本面逻辑。需求端，调研显示8月电芯及正极材料环节排产仍维持正增长，淡季不淡逻辑持续兑现；供应方面，尽管情绪有所退潮，但不可否认的是江西矿证事件仍无定论、风险尚未完全解除，短期基本面对价格仍有一定支撑。此外，本周盘面大幅回落后，现货市场成交显著放量、基差也略有走强，产业下游的买盘亦对价格构成一定支撑。 如何理解碳酸锂的春季躁动？2024/03/29过剩已至，产业链如何出清？2023/12/28博弈加剧，不破不立2023/09/29渐趋理性，波动收敛2023/06/29 策略方面，考虑到当前需求端淡季不淡、而供应端不确定性仍存，当前仍不推荐过于左侧的介入空单，短线相对更建议轻仓逢低试多，可以现货市场成交情况辅助判断入场节奏；此外，考虑到当前仓单量仍偏低而结构已然转C，建议9-11反套止盈。 ★风险提示 下游消费不及预期，新增产能建设进度与企业预期有所出入。 目录 1、盘面高位回落，下游买盘涌出...........................................................................................................................................42、周内行业要闻回顾...............................................................................................................................................................53、产业链重点高频数据监测...................................................................................................................................................63.1、资源端：锂精矿现货报价回落........................................................................................................................................63.2、锂盐：盘面高位回落........................................................................................................................................................63.3、下游中间品：报价略回升................................................................................................................................................83.4、终端：6月中国新能源车延续去库...............................................................................................................................104、风险提示.............................................................................................................................................................................10 图表目录 图表1：锂产业链重点高频价格监测............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：锂精矿现货均价................................................................................................................................................................................6图表3：MtCattlin锂精矿生产利润...............................................................................................................................................................6图表4：GFEX碳酸锂主力合约收盘价（LC2505）....................................................................................................................................6图表5：GFEX碳酸锂期限结构....................................................................................................................................................................6图表6：国内碳酸锂现货均价及电工价差....................................................................................................................................................7图表7：碳酸锂基差（SMM电碳现货均价-GFEX近月）..........................................................................................................................7图表8：国内氢氧化锂现货均价....................................................................................................................................................................7图表9：海内外氢氧化锂价差........................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：国内电池级氢氧化锂-碳酸锂价差.................................................................................................................................................8图表11：锂盐厂理论生产利润......................................................................................................................................................................8图表12：磷酸铁锂价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................8图表13：磷酸铁锂电芯（动力型）均价......................................................................................................................................................8图表14：三元材料价格走势..........................................................................................................................................................................9图表15：523方形三元电芯（动力型）均价................................................................................................................................................9图表16：钴酸锂价格走势...........................................................................................................................